Key View

• The sharp pick up in Vietnamese real GDP growth from 5.0% y-o-y in Q122 to 7.7% in Q222 suggests that the recovery has remained robust despite negative spillovers from the war in Ukraine.
• An emerging growth headwind is the deteriorating economic outlook in Mainland China, which is a key export destination for Vietnam.
• That said, we

Key View

• Legislative changes in Vietnam will enhance positive sentiment among drugmakers.
• Favourable business environment compared to regional peers will strengthen the presence of international pharmaceutical firms.
• Vietnam seeks to transition to pharmaceutical innovation, amid persisting structural risks.

The Vietnamese

Key View

• Consumer spending in Vietnam will post solid growth over 2022, after two years of Covid-19-related economic slowdowns.
• Nominal retail sales figures have recovered beyond pre-Covid-19 levels. While growth is on a strong upwards trajectory, we do note that higher inflation does pose a risk to consumer spending over 2022.

Outlook

Key View

• Vietnam will continue to see strong growth for both domestic sales and international exports of seafood products. Recovering global demand and ease of commerce with the signing of FTAs bode well for the Vietnamese seafood sector. Vietnamese seafood exports recorded strong growth in Q122, growing 40% y-o-y to USD2.4bn.
• Household

Key View

• We at Fitch Solutions expect the State Bank of Vietnam to keep monetary policy relatively accommodative, anticipating that the benchmark refinancing rate will be raised by just 25bps, to 4.25%, by the end of 2022.
• Concerns over global economic headwinds from higher commodity prices and slowing external demand will limit monetary

Key View:

• We expect Vietnam’s real GDP growth to accelerate to 6.8% in 2022, up from 2.6% in 2021 and 2.9% in 2020; the economy expanded by 5.0% y-o-y in Q122.
• Growth recovery will be underpinned by base effects and a continued easing of Covid-19 restrictions.
• Nevertheless, we note that headwinds to growth have risen following the outbreak

Key View

• While we continue to maintain a robust growth forecast for Vietnam’s renewables sector, we believe that persistent regulatory and operational uncertainties will weigh on the near-term outlook and pose some downside risks.
• This stems from a lack of clear policy around the upcoming Power Development Plan, feed-in-tariffs for the wind

Key View

• At Fitch Solutions, we forecast a strong recovery for mass grocery retail spending in Vietnam over both the short term (2022) and the medium (2022-2026). Spending across the economy rose after Vietnam ended strict lockdowns in October 2021 and the retail sector was one of the biggest beneficiaries of this move.
• Over the medium term

Key View

• Consumer spending in Vietnam will post solid growth over 2022, after two years of Covid-related slowdowns.
• Several high frequency indicators, such as retail sales and Google Mobility data, suggests that consumer spending is on a positive, upwards trajectory, despite performing poorly over Q321 and Q421.
• We highlight several risks to