Key View

• Vietnam is heavily reliant on conventional thermal power for its electricity supply, which will place upward pressure on electricity prices and slow the reduction of carbon emissions.
• The market is aiming to increase electricity trade with Laos and ramp up the deployment of renewable power projects, which we believe will alleviate

Key View: We forecast real household spending in Vietnam will grow by 7.3% y-o-y over 2023, a slowdown from 7.5% y-o-y growth in spending recorded in 2022 although we note that growth in 2022 largely came about from a low base. High-frequency data show a recovery from the slowdown in retail sales recovery trajectory that was seen in H222 as

Key View

• At Fitch Solutions, we now expect Vietnam’s policy rate to be hiked by a further 100 basis points to 7.00%, from 6.00% currently, by the end of 2023, revised down from our previous forecast of 7.50%.
• With global monetary conditions stabilising, there is a diminishing need for the State Bank of Vietnam to hike policy rates

Key View

• On December 14 2022, Vietnam and the International Partners Group agreed on a USD15.5bn partnership for Vietnam to reduce coal power generation, working toward the market’s 2050 carbon net-zero goal.
• We believe that the effects of a complete power mix transition away from fossil fuels will not be experienced this decade as the JETP

Key View

• Vietnam’s real GDP growth slowed sharply from 13.7% y-o-y in Q322 to 5.9% in Q422, and we at Fitch Solutions remain cautious about the outlook for 2023.
• While the economy will receive support from a likely rebound in demand from Mainland China, it will not be enough to offset the impact of a further weakening in global demand.
• With

Key View

• Vietnam has suffered another blow as further project setbacks halts ambitions to expand its gas production capabilities.
• This delay is part of an ongoing trend in Vietnam’s upstream project segment with the potential to compromise the long-term energy goals of the government.
• Our analysis of Vietnam's upstream segments, via our Risk

Key View

• We forecast real household spending in Vietnam will grow by 7.3% y-o-y over 2023, a slowdown from the 7.5% growth in spending estimated for 2022, although we note that growth in 2022 largely came about from the low base of 2021 (2.6%).
• Retail sales high-frequency data indicate while retail sales growth remains positive, growth has

Key View

• On October 24, the State Bank of Vietnam unexpectedly hiked its policy rates by another 100 basis points, and further increases are likely to follow as global credit conditions continue tightening and as domestic inflation looks set to accelerate.
• However, mounting headwinds to the economy, particularly in the form of weakening

Key View

• The 13.7% y-o-y jump in Vietnam’s Q322 real GDP is likely to prove the peak for growth, especially with favourable base effects fading, domestic monetary tightening now underway, and the outlook for global demand still deteriorating.
• At Fitch Solutions, we expect Vietnam’s solid recovery throughout the year so far to culminate in

Key View: As the Vietnamese economy continues to recover from the effects of the pandemic and income levels of consumers rise, many MGR players are capitalising on the growing formalisation of the grocery sector and increased food spending by launching expansion initiatives. Rising rates of urbanisation, the expansion of the middle class and high