Key View

• As we signalled was likely in December, we have revised up our forecast for US real GDP growth in 2024 from 0.8% to 1.4% (Bloomberg consensus: 1.2%), following an estimated 2.5% expansion in 2023.
• Looser financial conditions look to have helped growth remain above trend in Q423, with some of this momentum likely to be sustained into

Key View: Looking at the near term, we maintain a relatively upbeat outlook for electric vehicle (EV) adoption in the US, expecting domestic EV penetration rates to grow to 17.9% by 2024. Growth will stimulated by the US IRA bill, as the tax credits will make those models that qualify for the incentives more affordable for consumers. However, we

The Latest: On December 22 2023, Bristol Myers Squibb (BMS) announced plans to acquire Karuna Therapeutics, a central nervous system (CNS) company that specialises in developing therapeutics for psychiatric and neurological disorders, including schizophrenia and Alzheimer’s disease (AD) psychosis. The deal is worth a total of USD14bn.

Implicatio

Key View

• Safety concerns continue to be a major challenge for CAR-T therapies, potentially affecting future regulatory approvals and widespread clinical adoption.
• Recent clinical data suggest a revival of AbbVie and J&J’s Imbruvica in mantle cell lymphoma, following an earlier withdrawal of the drug.
• Seagen's Adcetris and Bristol Myers

Key View

• We have become increasingly bullish in our outlook for the global planned carbon capture (CCUS) capacity in 2023. We currently expect the total carbon capture capacity to reach just shy of 330.0 million tonnes of CO2 (mt CO2/y) by 2032, spanning 231 operating, under development, and planned projects. Risks to this forecast are tilted

The Latest: During the American Society of Haematology (ASH) annual meeting, which took place from December –9-12 2023 in California, Johnson and Johnson (J&J) announced positive data from the Perseus Phase III clinical trial. The study, which evaluated Darzalex Faspro (daratumumab and hyaluronidase) among stem cell transplant-eligible patients

The Latest: On November 20 2023, Grail announced that it will initiate the Real-world Evidence to Advance Multi-Cancer Early Detection Health Equity (REACH) study, which aims to assess the clinical impact of the Galleri multi-cancer early detection (MCED) test among Medicare beneficiaries in the US. This announcement comes after the FDA approved

Key View

• We anticipate healthcare personnel shortage will be a long-term challenge in the US, posing downside risks to quality and accessibility of care.
• As the demand for healthcare services increases and risks for staff shortages rise, we expect to see increased government spending and new legislation intended to expand the healthcare

The Latest: On November 8 2023, the US FDA approved Eli Lilly’s glucagon-like peptide 1 (GLP-1) agonist, Zepbound (tirzepatide) injection, for the treatment of adults with obesity or that are overweight with weight-related medical problems. According to Lilly, Zepbound is the first and only treatment that activates both glucose-dependent

Key View

• Despite a low number of approvals in October 2023, the variety of generic drug approvals indicates a growing interest in generics for a wide range of therapy areas.
• Stelara (ustekinumab) will become a target for generic competition in the near term due to patent expiry, although revenues will remain unaffected in 2024.
• The