Key View

• We continue to forecast that the US budget deficit will narrow from 6.3% of GDP to 5.8% in FY24 (October-September), with incoming data largely in keeping with this view.
• Relative to a second Trump presidency (average FY25-28: 6.5% of GDP, end of period: 6.2%), we expect that a Biden victory would result in a somewhat narrower

Key View

• We still expect the Fed will cut its funds rate by 100bps this year to 4.50%, beginning in June. A further 175bps will follow next year that will take the funds rate down to 3.00% by December 2025.
• The Fed left the funds rate unchanged at 5.50%, but officials maintained their guidance for three cuts this year (to 4.75%) despite

Key View

• Recent data from the US Environmental Protection Agency highlight a significant rise in Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) consumption. In just two years, usage soared from about 5mn gallons in 2021 to 15.8mn gallons in 2022, and then to 24.5mn gallons in 2023.
• The US aspires to reach a target SAF usage of 3bn gallons by 2030, a

Key View 

• A lack of current effective treatment is driving research into disease modifying therapies (DMTs) for Parkinson’s disease (PD). 
• We expect Alpha Synuclein (ASN) Inhibitors will be the first form of DMT for PD to receive FDA approval. 
• Drugs which engage neuronal rescue pathways, like GLP-1 agonists, have also shown promise in

The Latest: On March 14 2024, Bristol Myers Squibb (BMS) secured an accelerated FDA approval for Breyanzi (lisocabtagene maraleucel) as the first and only CAR T-cell therapy for adults with relapsed or refractory chronic lymphocytic leukaemia (CLL) or small lymphocytic lymphoma (SLL). The approval is based on positive results from a Phase I/II

Key View

• Reducing healthcare costs and expanding access to care will remain a priority for the US government, but the November presidential election poses downside risks to policy continuity. 
• As the burden of mental illnesses rises in the US, investments in healthcare personnel and preventive and therapeutic measures will continue to

Key View 

• Data centre hyperscalers are shifting their focus toward powering their infrastructure with nuclear energy.
• In particular, Small Modular Reactors (SMRs) are gaining popularity due to their scalable clean energy output and safety features, which are considered superior to those of larger-scale projects.
• Our Power team highlights

Key View

• Further dismissals of lawsuits targeting the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) will continue to pose downside risks to drugmakers in the US.
• Negotiations will set a precedent for drug pricing, as drugmakers present counter offers to Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS). 
• Drugmakers and relevant stakeholders implicated in

Core View

• We continue to view the presidential election as a toss-up. As the incumbent with a strong economy, President Joe Biden has a structural advantage. However, Donald Trump leads in the national polls and in most of the key swing states (Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio and Pennsylvania).
• We anticipate that

The Latest: On March 5 2024, the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approved Dexcom’s Stelo Glucose Biosensor System, marking the first FDA approval of an over the counter (OTC) continuous glucose monitor (CGM). The device is an integrated CGM that is to be worn on the upper arm and lasts for up to 15 days before it needs to be replaced. It