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• UK natural gas production is set to rise by 9% in 2022, up from 0% previously, due to a several new projects and less disruptive maintenance.
• We have revised the UK’s gas production forecast in 2023, to -3.5% from -9% previously, due to several new projects in 2022 and a brighter capex environment.
• Over the long term, we forecast

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• GSK reiterates that it will divest its Consumer Healthcare business in 2022 and has rejected offers to purchase the business from Unilever.
• GSK expects underlying revenue growth of between 5% and 7% in 2022, removing the impact of products for the treatment of Covid-19.
• Sales of Covid-19 treatments drove a strong performance in Q421

Key View

• At Fitch Solutions, we believe that discount stores will be able to further increase their market share in the UK over 2022. The key driver behind our view is the increase of the cost of living, fuelled by high inflation, which will increase consumer demand for lower priced grocery products.
• We highlight that the increase in the

The Latest: In-line with both our own expectations and the Bloomberg consensus forecast, the Bank of England’s (BoE) Monetary Policy Committee voted to raise its benchmark interest rate – the Bank Rate – by a further 25 basis points (bps) to 0.50% at its February policy meeting. In a surprisingly development, however, four of the nine members of

Key View

• We at Fitch Solutions now anticipate that UK real GDP will expand by 4.5% in 2022, a modest downward revision from our prior forecast for a 5.0% increase.
• The change to our forecasts reflects the prospect of somewhat tighter monetary policy, elevated inflation and a recent deterioration in the epidemiological situation.
• Nevertheless

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• We at Fitch

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• We at Fitch Solutions now expect that the Bank of England (BoE) will lift its benchmark Bank Rate to its pre-pandemic level of 0.75% over the course of 2022, after beginning its tightening cycle in December 2021 with a 15 basis-point (bps) hike to 0.25%.
• We anticipate that inflation will average 4.5% in 2022, ending the year well

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• We at Fitch Solutions expect further tense rhetoric between the UK and the EU over the Northern Ireland Protocol in the coming days, which the UK government refuses to implement in full on the grounds that it substantially disrupts trade within the UK.
• However, we believe the UK will eventually compromise on its demands, meaning both

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• We currently expect the UK's residential building industry to see real growth of 12.1% y-o-y in 2021, and average annual real growth of 4.7% y-o-y between 2021 and 2025, though we note growing downside risk from the demand-side of the industry, and the broader macroeconomic environment, that could serve to dampen this outlook.
• The

Key View

• We continue to expect Prime Minister Boris Johnson to serve out the rest of its term to 2024 following a major cabinet reshuffle designed to boost the ruling Conservative Party’s popularity.
• Risks of a rebellion against the government remain low, despite some divisions on tax hikes announced in September and enduring obstacles to