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• In this article, we consider ‘wild card’ or unexpected developments that could affect our core view that the UK’s main opposition Labour party will form a government after the July 4 election. 
• Both the Conservatives and Labour will see intense scrutiny on the campaign trail, which could lead to notable gaffes or a scandal coming to light.
• Th

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• On May 22, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak announced that a UK general election will be held on July 4.
• This date is much earlier than most expected. Sunak may be attempting to take advantage of a pickup in economic activity and confirmation that inflation has fallen to 2.3% y-o-y (in April) to encourage a feelgood factor heading into the vote.
• We

Please Note: BMI is enhancing its risk analysis with a new scoring system following its acquisition of GeoQuant, a market-leading provider of political risk data. From March 27 2024, risk scores are inverted: zero now represents the lowest risk and 100 represents the highest risk. This allows for clearer, industry-standard assessments. For further

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• UK drug shortages will likely persist due to ongoing post-Brexit access challenges, alongside wider regional supply chain issues. 
• The UK's pharmaceutical sector will continue to present a less attractive prospect for investment compared to EU markets.
• Amidst Brexit's complexities, the UK government will continue to introduce new measures to

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• We have revised upward our forecast for UK real GDP growth in 2024 from -0.1% to 0.5%, as the economy has had a much stronger start to the year than we previously anticipated.
• Several tailwinds will support growth throughout Q2 and into Q3 2024. This includes declining inflation, decent wage gains, as well as lower National Insurance taxes

Latest Development: On April 1 2024, Smith+Nephew (S+N) launched the Renasys Edge Negative Pressure Wound Therapy (NPWT) System in the US, a device that significantly advances the home-based treatment of chronic wounds in the US. NPWT devices are wound dressing systems that continuously or intermittently apply sub-atmospheric pressure to the

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• Major central banks were broadly in sync as they undertook quantitative easing (QE); however, the BoE is set to undertake a divergent path in reducing the size of its balance sheet, conducting quantitative tightening (QT) to a greater extent than its peers, including more outright bonds sales.
• We expect that QT from the BoE will have

The Latest: On March 19 2024, AstraZeneca announced it has agreed to acquire Fusion Pharmaceuticals, a company focused on the development of radioconjugates for cancer, in a deal worth up to USD2.4bn. Radioconjugates are an emerging class of targeted cancer treatment that work by combining antibodies with small molecules or peptides that are then

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• GSK’s latest Blenrep (belantamab mafodotin) trial results will improve the drug’s outlook as a potential multiple myeloma drug treatment, but recent regulatory challenges cast doubt over a potential market re-entry.
• Due to a highly competitive multiple myeloma drug market companies will continue seeking label expansions in earlier