Key View

• We maintain our view that the UK will fall into a shallow recession in the first half of 2024 driven by higher variable mortgage rates, a slowdown in investment from corporates, and a weak external backdrop.
• The so-called maturity wall of bond rollovers which is due to hit in 2025/2026 is a driver of our expectations that the growth

The Latest: BT announced the launch of the UK’s first drone SIM that enables beyond visual line of sight (BVLOS) unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) flights. Our view is that the move is poised to gradually provide more risks to the upside as UK regulators double-down on drone safety regulations and enterprise consumers increasingly seek productivity

Key View

• Recent weeks saw sterling fall from an August 30 peak of USD1.27/GBP to a September 25 rate of GBP1.22/USD.
• This has prompted us to revise weaker our end-2023 sterling forecast from USD1.28/GBP to USD1.20/GBP.
• We expect the rate story to continue to play the main role in the coming months. Markets are yet to fully price out a final

Key View

• A recovery in vehicle supplies following the easing of the global semiconductor shortage underpins our more optimistic outlook for the UK’s autos market in the near term (2023 and 2024).
• However, we do not rule out that vehicle demand in Q323 and H124 could slow down as the supportive effects of pent-up demand fade and macroeconomic

Key View

• On September 20, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak announced a series of policy changes, indicating an abrupt U-turn on climate policy from the UK.
• In response to the change, we have lowered the UK’s Short-Term Political Risk Index (STPRI) score from 77.9 to 77.3, with the shift deriving from a reduction in the policy continuity component

Key View 

• Broad FDA approval of Ojjaara validates GSK’s USD1.9bn bet on Sierra Oncology and makes it the first and only drug approved in the US to treat myelofibrosis patients with anaemia.
• Ojjaara’s strongest rival will be Incyte’s blockbuster Jakafi; however, broad anaemia indication will provide GSK with a competitive edge.
• The regulatory

Key View

• We expect the recent downtrend in UK house prices to continue over the coming quarters.
• Purchasing power is being eroded by high interest rates, the rising cost of living, and the erosion of pandemic excess savings, all of which are reducing the affordability of houses.
• However, the downside for house prices will be limited by a

Key View

• The United Kingdom will remain one of the most attractive European markets for EV charging infrastructure investment over the coming decade, a view underpinned by our upbeat expectations for EV sales over the period.
• The expansion of EV charging infrastructure in the UK has accelerated in recent years, with demonstrable appetites

Key View

• Unseasonably high gas storage levels in north-western Europe will see the UK’s annual imports of LNG weaken in 2023.
• The newfound position of the US as the largest source of LNG imports into the UK will be further entrenched by the recent signing of a long-term LNG supply deal.
• The UK’s three LNG import terminals are set to continue

Key View

• We remain bearish on the long-term growth prospects of the UK, marking a continuation of the country’s poor growth through the 2010s. Compared to average annual real growth of 2.4% over 1960-1999, 2.1% over 2000-2007 and 1.8% over 2010-2019, we expect a slowdown to 1.4% between 2023 and 2032.
• Several major headwinds to output growth