Content type

UAE Set For Milder Deflationary Pressures In 2021

Country Risk / United Arab Emirates / Wed 11 Nov, 2020

Key View

  • At Fitch Solutions, we forecast the UAE inflation will average -1.9% in 2020.
  • In 2021, we expect a combination of higher energy prices and an economic recovery will drive inflation to average -0.2%.
  • The UAE policy rate – the repo rate – will be held at 0.75% until 2023 by the monetary authorities, mirroring our US Fed funds rate
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Expo Delay A Deal Breaker For Dubai Growth

Country Risk / United Arab Emirates / Thu 09 Apr, 2020

Key View

  • We at Fitch Solutions have sharply revised down our 2020 Dubai growth forecast to -2.3%, from 3.8% previously.
  • As with our UAE recession forecast, our Dubai revision stems from the massive disruptions to economic activity being caused by Covid-19, and incorporates a one-year delay of the Dubai Expo.
  • Nevertheless, growth will rebound
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UAE Likely To Hit Recession In 2020

Country Risk / United Arab Emirates / Thu 02 Apr, 2020

Key View:

  • We at Fitch Solutions have revised down our UAE 2020 growth forecast from 1.9% to -0.9% to reflect the impact of both a delay to Dubai Expo 2020 and wider economic disruptions from Covid-19.
  • These pressures will be only partly offset by a ramp-up in oil production thanks to the collapse of OPEC+ supply cuts.
  • We do however, forecast a
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Poor Outlook For Abu Dhabi Growth In 2020

Country Risk / United Arab Emirates / Wed 26 Feb, 2020

Key View

  • Real GDP growth in Abu Dhabi will slow significantly in 2020 to 0.6%, from an estimated 3.0% in 2019, before strengthening to 2.3% in 2021.
  • OPEC-led oil supply cuts will weigh on headline growth, keeping activity in the oil and gas sector virtually flat in 2020 compared to 2019, though we expect an uptick in 2021, assuming that cuts
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