Key View

• At

Key View

• We at Fitch Solutions maintain that the National Bank of Ukraine will hold its policy rate at 8.50% until the end of 2021.
• We have, however, revised our forecast for 2022 and now expect up to 100bps of cuts, compared with 200bps previously, as inflation is predicted to ease more slowly than previously anticipated.
• We now expect

Key View

• Ukraine’s economy fell back into recession in Q221 as real GDP growth contracted by 0.8% q-o-q.
• Against the backdrop of a weaker than anticipated growth performance in H221, we have downwardly revised our full year growth forecast from 4.2% to 3.8%. We have also revised up our growth forecast for 2022 from 3.7% to 4.0% to account for

Key View

• The Ukrainian hryvnia will embark on a

Key View

• We at Fitch Solutions expect the National Bank of Ukraine to hike its benchmark policy rate once more by 50 basis points to 8.50% this year.
• Further monetary tightening remains necessary to rein in above target inflation which continues to face substantial upside from the demand and supply sides.
• We believe that inflation will

Key View

• We at Fitch Solutions have revised down our forecast for Ukrainian real GDP growth in 2021 to 4.2%, from 4.7% previously, as Q121 data came in below expectations.
• Output contracted by 1.2% q-o-q in Q121, but improving data towards the end of the quarter support our view for a strong recovery to take hold from Q221.
• We forecast real

Key View

• Poor Ukraine-Russia relations bring downside risks to our Ukraine grains sector outlook.
• We do not expect short term production or exports to be affected, although military conflict or disruption to the Kerch Strait would change this.
• Over the long-term, prolonged strained relations will hinder production growth by limiting

Key View

• The Ukrainian economy continued to recover in Q420, as real GDP expanded by 0.8% q-o-q, mitigating the annual contraction to 0.7% y-o-y, compared to the 3.5% drop the quarter before.
• We expect that Ukraine’s economic recovery will maintain momentum in Q121 as the country only implemented a limited and relatively short second lockdown

Key View

• Ongoing reform of Ukraine’s healthcare system will increase the flow of badly needed funds to the country’s public healthcare system and improve health outcomes.
• A rapidly growing medicine reimbursement program will eventually present opportunities for innovative drugmakers, but over the short-term opportunities will be limited to