Key View

• We at Fitch Solutions remain of the view that the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) will hold its benchmark rate at 25.00% until mid-2024.
• While wartime inflationary pressures will persist across 2023, we do not expect Ukraine to slip into hyperinflation as is common in wartime economies.
• We continue to expect the National Bank of

Key View

• The Kerch Bridge explosion, Russian retaliatory strikes and recent operational defeats in Kharkiv and Lyman, and the news of the formation of a Belarus-Russia battalion point to a new wave of escalation in the Russia-Ukraine war.
• This said, the latest escalatory upswing does not change our core view that fighting will moderate

Key View

• We at Fitch Solutions now forecast the Ukrainian economy to record a mild rebound of 4.0% in 2023 (previous forecast: 5.8%), following a painful 35.0% contraction in 2022.
• We expect Ukraine to begin a shallow and gradual path of recovery thereafter, with no return to pre-war GDP in sight.
• External aid will be vital to prevent

Key View

• We expect that the conflict between Russia and Ukraine will stretch into H223.
• Government spending will be diverted away from healthcare and toward defence into 2023 but will recover in the medium term with the committed support of the Zelenskiy administration.
• The need for major rebuilding and restoration of damaged or destroyed

Key View

• Grain prices are likely to be capped in H222 following the signing of the agreement between Russia, Ukraine, Turkey and the UN on July 22 2022, which will see the resumption of grain exports from Ukraine’s Black Sea ports and the easing of the global food crisis, ceteris paribus.
• We highlight that we already expected grain prices to

Key View

• Operative estimates of the State Statistics Committee show that Ukrainian real GDP in Q122 contracted by 19.3% q-o-q and 15.1% y-o-y.

• The slump in growth will likely continue to steepen over the coming quarters as the Russian invasion will continue take a heavy toll on the Ukrainian economy, with real GDP due to contract by 35%

Key View

• Inflation targeting by the National Bank of Ukraine will remain suspended for the duration of the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
• Instead, the country’s banking and monetary system will operate under various martial law restrictions, which will only be removed once economic conditions return to normal.
• Though an end to the conflict is

Key View: Russia's invasion of the Ukraine will have a significant impact on the consumer sector in the country. The invasion and its impact, both in the short term and medium term is ongoing and fluid and we warn further revisions are likely, but based on our initial assessments we have revised down our consumer spending outlook for 2022, with a