Key View

• We at Fitch Solutions forecast Ukraine to record a wide budget deficit equal to 25.5% of GDP in 2023.
• The budget will primarily be financed through macro-financial loan assistance from the EU, grant funding from the US and an IMF program.
• Monetary financing of the budget will cease as external support will be sufficient to preserve

Key View

• The impact of the war with Russia on Ukraine’s agricultural sector to date has been catastrophic. Domestic production of wheat and corn, which are major export products, is estimated to have fallen by 38.8% y-o-y and 35.9% y-o-y respectively in 2022/23, and we forecast further declines of 18.3% y-o-y and 17.6% y-o-y in 2023/24.
• Given

Key View

• We at Fitch Solutions expect that Western Balkan states, Ukraine, and Moldova will continue pursing EU membership by aligning their regulatory frameworks closer to that of the EU to varying degrees.
• This will allow them to benefit from direct EU funding and lead to greater trade and investment from EU states in the coming years.
• How

We at Fitch Solutions expect support from Ukraine’s international partners to alleviate Kyiv’s resource concerns as Ukraine prepares for major offensive operations. US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin affirmed that international partners would support “Ukraine’s fight for freedom over the long haul – and help Ukraine hold and advance during the

Key View

• The Ramstein meeting of Ukraine’s international partners signalled continued willingness to provide Ukraine with military aid for the duration of the conflict, despite the economic costs.
• Despite Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock’s statement that Germany would allow Poland to export Leopard 2 tanks, the German government is likely

Key View

• We remain of the view that the disparity between Russian and Ukrainian positions on an acceptable end to the war will prevent a cessation of armed conflict.
• Although we expect armed conflict to continue throughout 2023, there is increasing evidence that resource dilemmas will diminish the intensity of fighting over the coming months

Key View

• Electrical blackouts are unlikely to support Russian offensive operations and we remain of the view that Russia lacks the resources necessary to achieve its stated objectives.
• We do not expect Russian missile campaigns to meaningfully impact Ukrainian morale or international support for Ukraine.
• We expect domestic actors to remain

Key View

• We at Fitch Solutions remain of the view that fighting in the Russia-Ukraine war will continue until at least H223.
• Although movement along the frontlines is likely, we do not expect either side to fulfil its stated objectives.
• We expect fighting to remain isolated to the East and South of Ukraine, although Russian missile strikes

Key View

• The Russia-Ukraine conflict continues to be the primary driver of wheat and corn price market volatility, with second-month generic wheat futures surging 8.2% and corn up 2.3% following Russia’s decision to withdraw from the agreement.
• Russia’s withdrawal from the suspension resulted in an immediate easing of prices, with wheat