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• Our outlook for consumer spending in 2021 is positive with real household spending projected to grow by 2.1% y-o-y, following an estimated contraction of 0.7% y-o-y over 2020.
• In 2022, we forecast real household spending growth to remain positive, expanding by 3.5% y-o-y.
• While Uganda, began its Covid-19 vaccine rollout in March

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• Opportunities in Uganda's railway infrastructure sector will focus on the upgrading and improvement of the country's existing railway network, while comparatively low trade and income levels will likely curb demand for significant investment in additional mainline and freight rail infrastructure.
• Urban population growth will support

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• Weak fundamentals, including a small construction industry, low levels of trade and a small vehicle fleet underpin our modest outlook on road construction opportunities in Uganda.
• Although comparatively short construction times and lower levels of complexity reduce road projects' exposure to Uganda's weak country and industry risk

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• We at Fitch Solutions expect domestic tensions in Uganda will remain elevated following January’s heavily contested presidential election result.
• Stringent Covid-19 restrictions and a crackdown on activism will limit the risk of widespread protests emerging over the coming months.
• Over the medium-term, however, political rallies

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• Uganda’s overall score on our Telecoms Risk/Reward Index comes in at 43.7 points out of a potential 100 on the Sub-Saharan African Telecoms Risk/Reward Index for Q321, for a ranking of 16th out of 48 markets surveyed.
• The market’s potential stems from a youthful customer base which bodes well for mobile market growth as well as

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• The second wave of Covid-19 infections in Uganda continues to overwhelm hospitals.
• Access to a Covid-19 vaccine will help alleviate some of the burden on the healthcare system.
• Malaria remains the leading cause of illness and death in the country.
• Uganda’s low healthcare expenditure per capita will limit healthcare resources

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• At Fitch Solutions, we forecast an acceleration of real GDP growth in Uganda from 5.4% in 2019 to 5.6% in 2020, compared to 7.7% in 2018.
• Relatively low inflation and accommodative monetary policy will provide tailwinds to private consumption over the short term.
• The government's ambitious infrastructure development agenda will buoy

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• At Fitch Solutions, we forecast an acceleration of Uganda's headline inflation rate from an average of 2.9% in 2019 to 4.6% over 2020.
• Amid rising inflation and moderating economic growth, we forecast the BoU to hold its policy rate at 9.00% over 2020.
• Risks to our forecast for a neutral monetary policy stance in 2020 are mixed, but