Key View

• We at Fitch Solutions expect that the BoU will maintain its hawkish stance after hiking the policy rate by 100 basis points to 7.50% in June 2022.
• We expect a robust economic backdrop will provide room for additional 75bp hikes in 2022 and 2023, with the BoU seeking to bring headline inflation back to within the medium-term target of

Key View

• Growth in Uganda’s construction industry, which we forecast to average 6.7% per year between 2022 and 2026, will be driven by the development of the Lake Albert oil fields and investment in supporting infrastructure, such as the East Africa Crude Oil Pipeline.
• We expect construction of the USD3.5bn pipeline to begin in H2 2022 and to

Key View

• Uganda’s East African Crude Oil Pipeline (EACOP) continues to face criticism, with major re-insurers including Allianz and Munich Re recently confirming their refusals to underwrite the project, citing environmental concerns.
• We expect that other insurance firms will step in to underwrite EACOP, likely those who are less concerned

Key View

• We forecast real household spending in Uganda to grow by 6.3% in 2022, accelerating from the 5.0% growth in 2021 as economic activity increases, improving the wage and employment prospects of consumers.
• The positive outlook for household spending in Uganda in 2022 is driven by our view that that unemployment will come down, the

Key View

• We at Fitch Solutions expect the Bank of Uganda (BoU) to end the easing cycle and increase the policy rate by 100 basis points (bps) to 7.50% by end-2022.
• A higher domestic Covid-19 vaccination rate will strengthen economic conditions and provide the central bank room to tighten monetary policy to ensure price stability.
• Risks to

Key View

• Plans for the USD20bn Lake Albert development project are reaching final stages, meaning Uganda’s first oil production is on track for 2025, provided an enabling law is imminently passed by the Ugandan government to allow for the construction of the East African Crude Oil Pipeline (EACOP).
• Aside from the need to build costly pipeline

Key View

• We at Fitch Solutions expect Uganda’s current account deficit to widen to 10.6% of GDP in 2021 from an estimated 9.8% in 2020 amid rising capital goods imports and falling refined gold exports.
• The deficit will likely further widen to 11.2% of GDP in 2022 as import growth outpaces export growth and external debt payments increase.
• A

Key View

• We forecast real household spending in Uganda to grow by 4.4% over 2022, accelerating from the 3.6% growth in 2021.
• In 2022, consumer demand will be robust aided by the easing of restrictions, particularly in the services sector, which will improve the wage and employment prospects of people in the country.
• Uganda has a low Covid

Key View

• We at Fitch Solutions forecast real GDP growth of 3.6% in 2021, well below the 2011-2019 average of 5.1%.
• Whilst a strong recovery in mining exports and foreign direct investment will boost headline growth, ongoing Covid-19 restrictions will likely weigh on private consumption.
• We expect that economic growth will accelerate to 4.3%

Key View

• We at Fitch Solutions expect Uganda’s current account deficit to widen to 10.1% of GDP in 2021 from an estimated 9.8% in 2020.
• The widening of the deficit will be primarily driven by an uptick in merchandise imports as private sector activity recovers, while tourism inflows remain weak.
• We expect the deficit to widen further to 10.4