Key View

• We forecast that Uganda’s current account deficit will widen from an estimated 9.5% of GDP in 2022 to 9.7% in 2023, chiefly reflecting above-trend import growth.
• In 2024, the deficit will widen further to 9.9% as export growth, constrained by lower coffee prices, trails import growth (stemming from demand for consumer goods and

Key View

• We forecast that the Bank of Uganda will hold its policy rate at 9.50% in H223, after cutting by 50 basis points at its August 15 meeting.
• While inflation has recently returned to the BoU’s 5.0% medium-term target, a weaker shilling and higher oil prices will exert upward pressure on inflation over the coming months, disincentivising

Key View:

• Kirra Motors Corporation’s ambitious plans to develop a domestic autos value chain face increased uncertainty as construction of its flagship Jinja plant drags on, potentially derailing the goal to produce vehicles locally.
• Additional funds and deeper collaboration with an existing technical partner to develop Uganda’s nascent

Key View: We hold a positive outlook for consumer spending in Uganda over 2023, with real household spending growth accelerating to 6.4% y-o-y. The expansion of the Ugandan economy will have positive effects for the country’s consumer base, while inflation and interest rates risks will both begin to moderate over Q223 and into H223. We highlight

Key View

• At Fitch Solutions, we expect protest activity to moderate in 2023, as inflation continues to ease and economic growth accelerates.
• That said, we note persistent risks to regional stability, with tensions between the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Rwanda remaining elevated, increasing the potential for militant incursions into

Key View: We hold a positive outlook for consumer spending in Uganda in 2023, with real household spending growth accelerating to 5.8% y-o-y. While inflation and interest rates will both remain elevated in 2023, when compared to their respective 2022 levels, the expansion of the Ugandan economy will have positive effects for the country’s

Key View

• We at Fitch Solutions have revised up our estimate for Ugandan real GDP growth to 4.9% in 2022, up from our previous projection of 4.2%, following stronger-than-expected economic activity in Q322.
• We expect that real GDP growth will accelerate to 5.9% in 2023 as construction work on the Lake Albert Oil Project gains momentum and

Key View

• We at Fitch Solutions expect Ugandan real GDP growth to slow to 3.8% in 2022, from an estimated 5.5% in 2021.
• This is a downward revision from our previous forecast of 4.8% growth in 2022, reflecting the impact of higher inflationary pressures on consumption.
• We expect stronger economic growth of 5.6% in 2023 as construction work on

Key View

• We at Fitch Solutions expect Ugandan real GDP growth to slow to 4.8% in 2022, from an estimated 5.5% in 2021.
• The fading of supportive base effects and headwinds resulting from higher inflationary pressures will weigh on headline growth, and as a result we have revised down our 2022 forecast from 5.0% previously. However, fewer Covid