Key View

• We at Fitch Solutions maintain our forecast for Turkey’s real GDP growth to come in at -1.9% and 3.5% in 2019 and 2020 respectively.
• Our core view remains that Turkey will muddle through its precarious external financing position by once again deleveraging and containing domestic credit growth.
• However, risks to our outlook are

Key View

• We believe that the Turkish currency crisis will continue to have an adverse effect on the country’s vehicle production in 2019, as manufacturers will find it more difficult and expensive to import components and vehicle assembly kits.
• Increasing borrowing costs and an elevated inflation rate will impact demand for new vehicles

Key View:

• The EUR1.2bn modernization of the Halkali (Istanbul)-Kapikule (Edrine) line will move ahead, given it represents a significant improvement to a route of strategic importance to the trans-European railway network.
• The project is an example of continued EU interest in supporting the development of trans-European transport networks, but

Key View

• The Turkish government will increasingly seek to use unorthodox stimulus measures to relieve economic pressures on the country.
• While under the constraints of the self-imposed budget deficit targets of its New Economic Programme announced in 2018, the government will turn to unconventional tactics and political pressure on the private

Key View

• Turkey’s current account deficit will narrow over the coming years, on the back of a contraction in domestic demand for imports.
• A rebound in tourism and lower oil price growth should provide further support for a narrowing of the deficit.
• However, softer external demand and tight credit conditions for exporters will limit Turkey’s

Key View:

• Despite significant growth potential in Turkey, the country's pricing and reimbursement regimes create considerable headwinds to drugmakers, and particularly to innovative pharmaceutical firms.
• To access medicine reimbursement, drugmakers must agree to mandatory discounts which can rise up to 41% for innovative products.
• Applied on

Key View: 

• We forecast wind and solar capacity additions growth in Turkey to slow over 2019/2020, as a number of projects will face delays amid the country's challenging economic environment. In particular, the depreciation in the lira from August 2018, and the ensuing volatility registered for the currency, will mean that obtaining financing

Key View

• Despite a change in base prices at which special consumption tax is levied on cars allowing for a wider range of models to move into lower tax brackets, it will not be enough to halt the downturn in sales in the domestic vehicle market.
• An ailing currency and the resultant high inflation, as well as an increase in borrowing costs, will