Key View

• We at Fitch Solutions expect that economic deeper ties between Turkey and Russia could stabilise the Turkish lira as Turkey will be allowed to purchase some of its gas needs using the domestic currency.
• We also believe that Turkey will not face secondary sanctions even if it is viewed by EU lawmakers to be helping Russia evade

Key View

• Turkey is forecasted to grow by 3.3% in 2022, with real household spending in Turkey to grow by 4.0%.
• Inflation in Turkey is expected to be extraordinarily high and expected to weigh down consumer sentiment.
• We highlight several risks to outlook over 2022, including elevated inflation and the possibility of new Covid-19 variants

Key View

• We at Fitch Solutions forecast that Turkey’s current account deficit will widen to 4.1% of GDP in 2022 from 1.8% in 2021.
• While Turkey’s external sector will face broad weakness owing to the negative impact of the Russia-Ukraine war on key trading partners, the country’s main source of external stress will be the rising cost of

Key View

• We at Fitch Solutions retain our view that the Turkish lira is set to remain weaker for longer with our forecast for the unit to average TRY17.50/USD in 2022 and TRY20.33/USD in 2023 compared to TRY8.9/USD in 2021.
• Turkey recently announced some capital controls as a means to tighten their hold on the Turkish lira as they resist

Key View

• Diagnostic imaging products, and other market segments deemed high-value, will directly benefit from Turkey’s ongoing healthcare transformation strategies.
• Turkey’s alignment with EU regulations is a positive for investment in medical devices.
• Turkish medical exports expected to see continued growth as market increases production

Key View

• Turkey’s ongoing currency crisis will drive autos producers to reduce their production capacity in 2022 as inflationary pressure caused by the depreciation of the lira will drive up manufacturers’ operating costs and reduce domestic sales, forcing automakers to reduce their output over the year.
• The global shortage of semiconductors

Key View: We forecast real household spending growth in Turkey to recover in 2021, growing by 6.0%. This follows an estimated contraction of 1.3% in 2020 due to the Covid-19 pandemic and the related restrictions. As such, we believe that Turkey’s consumer and retail sector should make a full recovery in 2021. In 2022, we forecast real consumer

Key View

• We have revised our refined fuels demand forecast for Turkey down to 3.7% from 9.2% for 2021 due to low H121 demand and lower base effects than anticipated.
• The fuel demand recovery is ongoing and will continue into 2022; we have revised our forecast accordingly, from 5.7% to 8.1%. We expect fuel demand to return to 2019 levels to