Key View 

• Turkiye’s  ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) experienced significant defeats at the March 31 municipal and provincial elections, with the opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) increasing its vote share. 
• The AKP’s losses reflect the electorate’s general dissatisfaction with the ruling party’s economic policies, that

Key View

• According to GDP data released on February 29, Turkish economic growth accelerated from 0.3% q-o-q (6.1% y-o-y) in Q3 2024 to 1.0% q-o-q (4.0% y-o-y) in Q4 2023.
• Despite this performance – which was stronger than we had expected – we still think that Turkiye’s economy will enter recession in Q2 2024, after local elections on March

Key View

• Vodafone Turkey's latest 'state of the market' report highlights a number of structural and regulatory deficiencies that continue to impede the country's efforts to use digital services and infrastructure to transform its economy.
• The operator correctly identifies the spectrum bottleneck and fibre investment constraints as being

Despite President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan unveiling a new cabinet of ministers, many of whom are technocrats and business leaders the Turkish lira has faced significant stress in recent days. The two most notable appointments were that of seasoned economist Mehmet Şimşek who led Turkiye’s economy through a period of stability in the early 2000s

Key View

• With Turkiye’s elections only a month away, we examine the final four presidential candidates and provide an overview of their platforms.
• We retain our core view that President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan will manage to secure a victory in the second round of voting for the presidency.
• Nevertheless, risks to this view are rising, given

Key View: We expect electric vehicle (EV) sales in Turkiye to double during 2023, to reach 15,100 units. This would imply passenger EV penetration rates (passenger EV sales as % of total passenger vehicle sales) expanding from 1.3% in 2022 to 2.4% in 2023. We, therefore, expect sales growth in the EV sub-segment to outperform the wider

Key View

• While Emerging Europe has managed to return its debt to pre-pandemic levels and overall debt levels are also lower than in DM Europe, we believe debt sustainability issues still remain.
• In a climate of tightening financial conditions, unorthodox monetary policy especially poses elevated risks to private debt in Turkiye and Hungary

Key View

• Lira depreciation will continue to weigh on medical device market growth in Turkey, while forecast local currency growth remains stable.
• While rising political risk will weigh on the lira in the short term, an expected 2023 election victory for Recep Tayyip Erdoǧan will be largely positive for medical device market growth.
• Broad