Key View

• Pharmaceutical manufacturing disruptions and a deteriorating fiscal position will pose headwinds to pharmaceutical sales in Tunisia.
• Pfizer will be the fourth pharmaceutical multinational to cease operations in Tunisia recently.
• Drug shortages in Tunisia will increase in frequency and severity.

Pharmaceutical manufacturing

Key View

• At Fitch Solutions we have revised up our forecast for 2022 average inflation in Tunisia from 7.8% to 8.1%, the highest since 1991.
• Worsening food and fuel shortages and higher imported inflation will increase price pressures with inflation likely peaking in Q422.
• We hold our view that the Central Bank of Tunisia will implement

Key View

• At Fitch Solutions we hold our view that Tunisia’s real GDP growth will slow from 3.1% in 2021 to 2.3% in 2022, despite strong Q222 data.
• According to the latest GDP reading, in Q222 the economy grew by 2.8% y-o-y, on the back of a strong recovery in the services sector.
• We believe that growth has peaked in Q222 and expect economic

Key View

• At Fitch Solutions we expect that Tunisia’s real GDP growth will slow from 3.1% in 2021 to 2.3% in 2022, as repercussions from the Russia-Ukraine war will weigh on private consumption and net exports.
• We have revised down our 2022 growth forecast from 2.5% previously to account for lower-than-expected grain output amid heatwaves and

Key View

• At Fitch Solutions we maintain our forecast that Tunisia’s real GDP growth will slow from 3.1% in 2021 to 2.5% in 2022.
• Q122 GDP reading for Tunisia showed that the economy grew by a solid 2.4% y-o-y (0.7% q-o-q), on the back of a strong recovery in the mining and hospitality sectors.
• That said, elevated inflation will weaken

Key View

• At Fitch Solutions, we believe that consumer spending in Tunisia will remain subdued over 2022. We forecast real household spending to come in at 3.2% in 2022, a deceleration from 3.6% estimated for 2021.
• Our view that household spending growth will remain subdued over 2022 is in part driven by relatively stringent Covid-19 curbs

Key View

• We expect that Tunisia will stage an economic recovery over the remainder of 2021 and into 2022 on the back of a reopening of the economy and a rebound in tourism.
• However, the recovery will be held back by a confluence of factors, including high unemployment, tighter fiscal policy and ongoing uncertainty among investors about the

Key View

• Tunisia’s economic recovery will accelerate over the remainder of 2021 after losing momentum during Q420-Q121. We at Fitch Solutions forecast real GDP to grow by 3.5% in 2021 compared to an estimated contraction of 8.8% in 2020.
• Persistence of Covid-19 infections and political unrest will result in a slow normalisation of domestic