Key View

• We think that the Bank of Thailand will now cut rates as soon as its next meeting in June. That said, we are still expecting only two rounds of cuts this year. 
• Despite our view that interest rate cuts will do little to address the current challenges the economy is facing, sustained dissent among committee members is a reliable indicator of

The Latest: In April 2024, Spain-based hotel group Meliá Hotels International announced its plans to open two new luxury hotels in Thailand over the medium term (2024-2028). The company will open Meliá Pattaya City hotel in December 2024, as well as Paradisus Jomtien Resort in 2028. Meliá’s investment will be supported by its partnership with

The Latest: On February 21 2024, the Israel-based cultivated proteins company Aleph Farms announced a partnership with Thailand-based bio-based products manufacturer BBGI and India-based Fermbox Bio, a synthetic biology research and manufacturing company. Amongst the many new initiatives, the partnership will primarily initiate the first cellular

Key View: We hold a positive outlook for consumer spending in Thailand over 2024, as the wider Thai economy recovers and growth figures return to a more stable medium-term trajectory. High-frequency data indicate that consumer confidence has reached a 45-month high, suggesting that consumer spending on big-ticket items will be more likely, as the

Key View

• Thailand is seeking to fundamentally change fuel consumption mix in power generation favouring renewables.
• Thailand’s short-term natural gas demand is projected to grow further despite rising competition from the renewables.
• Additional natural gas demand growth is expected to come from gas processing plants.
• The outlook for

Key View

• We think that the Bank of Thailand's 25-basis point hike in September will be its last. The next move will be a cut, beginning in H2 2024 at the very earliest.
• However, the risks lean towards an extended hold. If there are upside price pressures due to supply shocks, this could result in the maintenance of interest rates at multi

The Latest: In October 2023, Central Pattana, Thailand's largest retail property development company, announced a THB20bn (USD541mn) investment into the company's latest development in downtown Bangkok. The development, which consists of a office building and shopping centre, is set to open in Q225 and Q325 respectively. The shopping centre and

Key View: Thailand's consumer spending outlook will continue to stabilise over 2023 and into 2024 as the base effects of the above-trend recovery seen over 2022 subside. Retail sales momentum for much of 2022-H123 was robust owing to the ongoing recovery from the shocks of Covid-19. At present, we see sales growth cooling in 2024 to more sedate

Latest Developments: The Bank of Thailand (BoT) raised its benchmark policy rate by 25 basis points (bps) to 2.50% on September 27.  This was the eighth consecutive hike, and pushed borrowing costs to their highest since 2013 (see chart below). The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC)’s decision was unanimous.

Key View

• Thailand’s Q223 real GDP growth of 1.8% y-o-y was much weaker than we had expected, and we have lowered our 2023 growth forecast from 3.0% to 2.8%.
• Thailand’s economy will face several headwinds stemming from high interest rates, heightened political uncertainty, and weak external demand.
• Nevertheless, the ongoing recovery in the