Key View

• We forecast that in 2022, real household spending will grow by 2.8% in South Korea, reaching KRW792.9trn (2010 prices), then growing by 2.6% y-o-y to KRW813.1trn in 2023.
• The high frequency data illustrates consumer concerns about interest rate rises and an imminent recession. Consumer confidence has fallen since May 2022, and retail

Key View

• South Korea's Q222 real GDP growth came in at 2.9% y-o-y and 0.6% q-o-q on a seasonally adjusted basis in Q222.
• The stronger-than-expected economic expansion was largely driven by looser virus restrictions and pent up demand, but the boost is likely to be short lived.
• Elevated inflation, monetary tightening and weak global demand

Key View

• We forecast real household spending in South Korea to grow by a further 2.8% y-o-y over 2022, reaching KRW792.6trn (USD685.4bn) and up 2.8% on pre-Covid-19 levels.
• High frequency data indicate that improving employment prospects and healthy economic growth will support consumer spending in 2022, with consumer confidence remaining

Key View

• The Bank of Korea on May 26 raised the benchmark base rate by 25bps to 1.75%, and we at Fitch Solutions are now expecting a further 75bps worth of hikes to 2.50% by end-2022.
• We have revised our average 2022 inflation forecast to 4.3% from 4.0%, amid a backdrop of elevated global oil prices, a weakening domestic currency and rising

Key View

• We at Fitch Solutions maintain our forecast for South Korean real GDP growth to slow from 4.0% in 2021 to 2.6% in 2022, after growth came in at 3.1% y-o-y in Q122.
• The Omicron wave weighed on the recovery in Q122, and while virus restrictions are now being lifted, the positive impact from the normalisation of economic activities is

Key View

• We at Fitch Solutions retain our expectations for South Korea’s current account surplus to narrow slightly to 4.5% of GDP in 2022, due to a confluence of upside and downside factors on its goods trade balance.
• Although the external demand for semiconductors still remains strong amid the ongoing global chip shortage, we expect the

Key View

• A victory by Lee Jae-myung of the ruling centrist-liberal Democratic Party would bode well for policy continuity, whereas a victory by conservative opposition People Power Party candidate Yoon Suk-yeol could lead to policy-making challenges, given the Democratic Party’s dominance of the legislature.
• Regardless of who wins, Lee or

Key View

• Consumer spending will post good growth over 2022, pushing real household spending above pre-Covid-19 levels.
• This positive outlook is seen in retail sales data, which shows signs of recovery and are now posting growth on pre-Covid-19 levels. E-commerce has done particularly well, now accounting for a quarter of all retail sales in

Key View

• South Korea’s economic growth will gradually ease back to its trend growth rate of 2.8% in 2022, as favourable base effect fades and economic activity continues to normalise amid sustained fiscal support.
• The economy grew faster than we expected in 2021, expanding 4.0% versus our expectation of 3.8%, buoyed by stronger domestic