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Radical Land Reform Unlikely In South Africa, But Recent Rhetoric Will Dent Investor Confidence

Operational Risk / South Africa / Fri 03 Aug, 2018

The Latest: On July 31 President Cyril Ramaphosa announced a decision to push ahead with a constitutional amendment allowing for the expropriation of land without compensation in South Africa. This followed a two day meeting of the ruling ANC's top decision making body, the National Executive Committee. According to his statement, it had become

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Mining Charter A Further Headwind To Investor Sentiment

Mining / South Africa / Thu 22 Jun, 2017

South Africa's recently published revisions to its mining charter will undermine already weak investment, offering further headwinds to the economic growth outlook. Aside from the direct headwinds to the mining sector due to a higher cost of compliance, the new charter further signals that the ruling African National Congress is moving ahead with

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Nuclear Expansion To Face Significant Hurdles

Power / South Africa / Fri 28 Apr, 2017

South Africa's nuclear agenda will face headwinds over the coming years - stemming from legal obstacles, public opposition, the financial constraints at Eskom and construction delays typically associated with nuclear power plants. We believe that the government will remain committed to its nuclear expansion; however, we do not expect any new

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Reshuffle Suggests Rising Risks Of Fiscal Slippage

Country Risk / South Africa / Tue 04 Apr, 2017

The March 30 cabinet reshuffle, which saw former Finance Minister Pravin Gordhan replaced with Malusi Gigaba, suggests substantial risks to the fiscal outlook in South Africa. Zuma's decision to put a political ally in the role of finance minister could augur a significant ramp-up in wages and other social transfers, a decision to move forward on a

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Gordhan Ouster: Initial Reactions

Country Risk / South Africa / Fri 31 Mar, 2017

The decision to replace Finance Minister Pravin Gordhan will have significant economic consequences for South Africa, weakening the currency, increasing the risk of fiscal slippage and weighing on investor sentiment. Politically, the consequences depend largely on the response of the anti-Zuma wing of the ruling African National Congress, with

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