Key View

• A lack of progress on the State of the Nation Address 2020 goals and the seemingly contradicting actions by the government will erode investor sentiment for the South African power sector.
• With delays in the approval of regulations allowing municipalities to purchase power from independent power producers (IPPs) and firms to self

Key View

• Covid-19-related restriction measures have seen South African retail sales contract for a third consecutive month in June 2020.
• Several demand-side risks are evident in the market, impacting South African consumer spending over the remainder of 2020.
• We highlight two key trends that are currently playing out for South African

Key View: We at Fitch Solutions have made a further downward revision to our 2020 alcoholic drinks consumption forecast for South Africa. Our forecast for alcoholic drinks consumption now drops to a contraction of -5.4% y-o-y for 2020, from a pre-Covid-19 forecast of 0.7% growth y-o-y. Initially, in March 2020, we made a downward revision to 0.5%

Key View

• We at Fitch Solutions expect South Africa’s consolidated fiscal deficit as a percentage of GDP to widen sharply from an estimated 6.8% in the 2019/20 fiscal year (FY) to 16.0% in FY20/21.
• Revenue collection will remain constrained by a sharp slowdown in GDP growth and the offering of some tax-relief measures, while expenditure will

Key View

• Despite lockdown and social distancing measures in place, cases in South Africa continue to increase rapidly.
• South African healthcare systems remain underequipped.
• Limited ICU space contributes to an increase in Covid-19 mortality rates.

The South African healthcare system continues to struggle under the weight of the Covid-19

Key View

• Covid-19 will continue to hamper mining production in South Africa over the coming quarters despite the sector being able to operate at full capacity, as the number of active cases within the sector remains on the rise.
• A resumption of cross-border mobility between South Africa and Mozambique will facilitate the return of migrant

Key View

• Dexamethasone continues to be a key treatment option for hospitalised Covid-19 patients on ventilators.
• Ramping up dexamethasone production allows Aspen to continue playing a leading role in the South African Covid-19 response.
• Approval of clinical trials for the Covid-19 vaccine will further boost healthcare in South Africa.

A

Key View

• South Africa’s construction competitive landscape exhibits a significantly stronger domestic presence than those of other countries in the region.
• We expect the trend towards consolidation of the South African construction competitive landscape to continue as the sector’s recovery from the short-term, Covid-19-related contraction is

Key View

• Multichoice is attempting to add value and stem declines in its South African pay-TV business by adding Netflix and Amazon Video streaming services to its premium bundles.
• For the over-the-top (OTT) players, greater exposure to a ready-made customer base and the opportunity to also tap demand for their standalone services will be the

Key View

• We at Fitch Solutions expect the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) to maintain a dovish policy stance over the coming quarters, and to reduce its benchmark policy rate by a further 50 basis points, to 3.25%, in H220.
• Consumer price inflation will remain well within the SARB’s 3.0-6.0% target range, given muted international oil