South Africa’s General Election: ANC To Lose Majority But Remain Main Policy Driver
Event / Country Risk / South Africa / -
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Learn MoreSouth Africa Election Contrarian View: Implications Of An ANC Coalition With The EFF Or DA
Country Risk / South Africa / Wed 08 May, 2024
Key View
- Our core view remains that the ANC will form a coalition with smaller parties. However, in this article we outline two contrarian views which are likely if the ANC’s vote share falls to 40% or below. These scenarios are an ANC-EFF coalition and an ANC-DA coalition.
- Over the course of 2024 and 2025, an ANC-EFF coalition would likely result in
South Africa Elections: No Immediate Turnaround For The Mining Sector
Mining / South Africa / Wed 24 Apr, 2024
Please Note: BMI is enhancing its risk analysis with a new scoring system following its acquisition of GeoQuant, a market-leading provider of political risk data. From March 27 2024, risk scores are inverted: zero now represents the lowest risk and 100 represents the highest risk. This allows for clearer, industry-standard assessments. For further
South Africa’s National Health Insurance Bill Likely To Be Signed Into Law, Implementation The Biggest Challenge
Healthcare / South Africa / Tue 23 Apr, 2024
Key View
- South Africa’s NHI Bill is likely to be signed into law in 2024 even if the African National Congress loses its majority during the May general election.
- If the NHI Bill passes into law, it will gradually constrain the private health sector over the long term.
- Budgetary constraints, corruption risks and an overstretched healthcare system are
Implications Of South Africa’s Possible Election Outcomes For Agribusiness
Agribusiness / South Africa / Thu 18 Apr, 2024
Key View
- If our Country Risk team’s most likely scenario of an ANC coalition with smaller parties were to materialise, this would result in policy continuity in the agriculture sector, albeit potentially at a slower pace. The most relevant policies for the agricultural sector relate to loadshedding, port efficiency and land redistribution.
- If
South Africa’s General Election Poses Upside And Downside Risks To The Infrastructure Reform Agenda
Infrastructure / South Africa / Tue 16 Apr, 2024
Key View:
- South Africa’s national elections pose both upside and downside risks to the current administration’s reform agenda in the transport and energy sector.
- Our core scenario, an ANC-led coalition with one or multiple smaller opposition parties, poses moderate risks to policy continuity in the infrastructure sector. A coalition between the ANC
South Africa's Banking Sector: Navigating Election-Induced Volatility and Coalition Dynamics
Banking & Financial Services / South Africa / Tue 09 Apr, 2024
Key View
- We think that the period leading up to the May 29 election will be marked by some volatility, weighing on the banking sector. However, beyond the election date, we anticipate a return to stability and policy continuity.
- The ANC has pledged to transform the financial landscape, although we think that the extent of its influence will likely be
Challenges For South African Citrus Exports Will Continue In 2024
Agribusiness / South Africa / Fri 08 Mar, 2024
Key View
- South African citrus exports decreased by 11.2% y-o-y from 2.6mn tonnes in 2022 to 2.3mn tonnes in 2023. In this piece, we look at the main factors behind the decline affecting the world’s second largest exporter of citrus fruits.
- The South African Citrus Growers’ Association has identified the worsening of the country’s electricity
South Africa’s Energy Transition To Be Accelerated By Strategic Partnerships
Power / South Africa / Mon 04 Mar, 2024
Key View
- We believe that the significant power market trade and investment agreements between South Africa and Mainland China at the 2023 BRICS summit will accelerate South Africa’s energy transition.
- Polarisation of Energy Transition towards China via the solar panel market underscores the growing reliance on Chinese technological expertise
South Africa EV Profile: High Import Barriers Will Restrict EV Adoption, But Some Potential Persists
Autos / South Africa / Mon 22 Jan, 2024
Key View: Despite the hurdles to EV ownership in South Africa, we note that there is strong upside risk over the longer term as consumers adopt solar, battery energy storage systems and EVs to be more self-sufficient and eliminate most of the need to buy fuel and electricity from the state and mitigate inflationary risks stemming from oil price
