Key View: We forecast real household spending in Russia to recover over 2021, growing by 3.1% y-o-y. As a result, we forecast the Russian consumer and retail sector to make a full recovery in 2021, with total household spending reaching RUB59.1trn (USD810bn), higher than the RUB55.0trn (USD750bn) recorded in 2019 (pre-pandemic). In 2022, we

Key View

• Russia’s aluminium production will steadily rise over the next decade.

• We at Fitch Solutions expect y-o-y growth to average 1.6% over the next five years compared to 0.4% over the last five.

• The introduction of new anode cell technology, a greener method of production, by Russia’s largest aluminium producer Rusal creates

Key View

• We have updated our oil production forecast for Russia to include the massive Vostok Oil project. The inclusion has led to a significant upwards revision to our forecast.
• We have also shifted some of our production forecast growth for 2022 into 2021 to include the recent decisions at OPEC+, in which Russia was again allowed to raise

Key View

• At Fitch Solutions, we have revised our 2021 real GDP forecast from 3.0% to 3.4% Our projection for 2022 remains unchanged at 2.7%.
• The growth adjustment is underpinned by an upward revision to the Q121 growth figure and also reflects increasingly bullish high-frequency data.
• Risks to our forecast remain tilted to the downside and

Key View

• At Fitch Solutions, we forecast Russia’s current account surplus to widen from 2.3% of GDP in 2020 to 3.7% in 2021 and 3.8% in 2022, with the energy sector the main driver of these dynamics.
• Further increases in Russia's current account surplus will support the accumulation of international reserves, while sustaining a stable net

Key View

• At Fitch Solutions, we forecast that the Central Bank of Russia (CBR) will hike its key interest rate to 6.00% by the end of 2021, from 5.50%, to curb currently above-target inflation.
• We expect inflation to begin easing in H221, returning close to target only by the end of 2022. Against this backdrop, after another 25bps hike at the

The Latest: According to data from the Federal Service for State Statistics (Rosstat), Russian real GDP contracted by 1.0% y-o-y in Q121, from -1.8% in Q420. This was a smaller contraction than the -1.2% y-o-y expected by Bloomberg consensus and according to our forecasts. The statistics agency has noted that transport was the worst affected

Key View

• At Fitch Solutions, we have revised our end-2021 interest rate forecasts for Russia from 5.00% to 5.50% to reflect the Central Bank of Russia’s hawkish shift amid an intensification in inflationary pressures.
• A more hawkish stance in 2021 and 2022 will help inflation subside and return close to the central bank’s 4.0% target by mid

Key View

• The depreciation of the Russian ruble over 2020 will continue in the long term, impacting medical devices imports and exports.
• Medical device imports growth has been weakened by currency depreciation in 2020 but will be strengthened by short-term currency appreciation in 2021.
• Medical device exports have been strengthened by the