Key View

• At Fitch Solutions, we have adjusted our monetary policy outlook for Russia after the central bank cut 300 basis points (bps) from its key policy rate at an unscheduled meeting on 8 April.
• The surprise cut took the key rate from 20.00% to 17.00%, and we expect it to be followed by a further 200bps cut over the next three months

Key View

• In light of heavy sanctions from the West following its invasion of Ukraine, Russia’s medical devices market will now contract over the forecast period.
• Areas where Russia receive a high percentage of imports from the West, such as orthopaedics & prosthetics, will be worst affected.
• Over the rest of the forecast period, trade with

Key View

• We have significantly revised downwards our forecast for Russia’s pharmaceutical sales due to the conflict with Ukraine, from a five-year compound annual growth rate of 7.0% to 1.5%.
• Russia’s decree on intellectual property piracy will deter new investments into the pharmaceutical market and make Russia a less attractive destination

Key View

• At Fitch Solutions, we expect that Russia’s current account surplus will widen from 6.0% of GDP in 2021 to 12.8% of GDP in 2022, due to elevated commodity prices and a severe decline in imports. It will then narrow to 8.1% of GDP in 2023 as exports decline.
• Russia’s large current account surplus masks an otherwise fragile external

Key View

• At Fitch Solutions, we believe that the Russian economy will contract by at least 5.1% in 2022 and 1.3% in 2023, compared to pre-invasion forecasts of 2.7% and 2.1% positive growth.
• We have revised down the outlook for all components of GDP but have made the largest revisions to private consumption, fixed investment and import growth