Key View

• At Fitch Solutions, we forecast Russia’s current account surplus to narrow from an estimated 12.5% of GDP in 2022 to 7.0% in 2023 as sanctions and supply chain disruptions weigh on exports.
• At the same time, we expect import growth to return to positive territory as import substitution schemes gather momentum. This said, a weaker RUB

Key View: The escalation of the Russia-Ukraine crisis has led us to revise down all of our consumer spending categories' forecasts for Russia over both the short term (2023) and medium term (2022-2026). In the short term, foreign retailers pulling out of the country, currency shortages, depreciations of the ruble, high inflation and the broader

Key View

• Flash estimates of Q322 GDP data surprised our expectations to the upside owing to growth in LNG exports. Consequently, we have revised up our full-year GDP forecast from -4.5% to -3.5%.
• We maintain our non-consensus view that the Russian economy will suffer a deeper recession in 2023, shrinking by 5.0%, as sanctions hit supply

Key View: We hold a negative outlook for household spending in Russia over 2023, with real spending forecast to contract by -6.9% y-o-y over the year. At just RUB27.1trn in 2023, real household spending (in 2010 prices) will be lower than the RUB30.7trn posted in 2019 (pre-Covid-19) and in-line with levels last seen in 2010. We hold the view that

Key View

• The Russia-Ukraine conflict continues to be the primary driver of wheat and corn price market volatility, with second-month generic wheat futures surging 8.2% and corn up 2.3% following Russia’s decision to withdraw from the agreement.
• Russia’s withdrawal from the suspension resulted in an immediate easing of prices, with wheat

Key View

• At Fitch Solutions, we believe the risk of a banking sector crisis in Russia has eased in the near-term; however, sustained international isolation poses medium- and long-term threats.
• In 2023, banking sector profitability will decline due to slowing credit demand and lower interest rates.
• We see a high risk of further financial

Key View

• At Fitch Solutions, we anticipate that Russia will struggle to implement the partial military mobilisation announced on September 21 due to uncertain logistical feasibility and weak popular support.
• We do not think the Ukrainian army will be deterred by Russia’s threat to use nuclear weapons to defend the occupied territories that

Key View

• We at Fitch Solutions believe that the threat of an imminent banking sector crisis in Russia has eased, but there are clear signs of a slowdown in lending, in particular to businesses.
• We expect that the impact of Western sanctions on Russia’s banking sector will be severe in 2022, but take several quarters to materialise fully.
• The

Key View

• As defence spending for the invasion of Ukraine becomes a priority and pandemic-related services are removed, Russia has stated that its 2022-2024 healthcare budget will be reduced significantly.
• Despite reductions in the budget, President Putin will allocate more funds to increase domestic production of healthcare products in 2022

Key View

• At Fitch Solutions, we think it unlikely that Russian President Vladimir Putin will order Gazprom to cut gas supply to Europe entirely in winter 2022/2023.
• Instead, supply could face disruptions officially resulting from technical or maintenance issues, pushing up spot prices, which Russia can attribute to Western sanctions.
• Against