Key View

• We see very little scope for a revival in energy trade between Russia and the EU, even over the long term, in light of the protracted nature of the Russia-Ukraine war, the difficulties in repairing Russia-West relations in its aftermath and deepening decarbonisation efforts in the EU.
• Russian-EU energy trade has collapsed in the wake

Key View

• We think that Russia’s pledge on May 15 to fund the construction of the Rasht-Astara railway between Iran and Azerbaijan reflects its ambitions to re-organise its trade profile with a greater focus on its Eurasian partners in the South Caucasus and Central Asia.
• Meanwhile, Iran will also benefit from the completion of the so-called

Key View

• The Russian economy contracted by 1.9% y-o-y in Q123, which was less than the 2.1% fall projected by the Bloomberg consensus and an improvement compared to the 2.7% decline recorded in Q422.
• As a result, we have revised up our 2023 GDP forecast from a contraction of 3.5% to a contraction of 1.3%.
• High frequency data have been mixed

Key View: Empty retail units within Russian shopping malls and department stores, as companies based in markets sanctioning Russia exited the country or scaled back their operations, are offering opportunities for retailers from markets, such as Mainland China, India, Iran, Turkey and Latin America to expand their existing footprint or to enter

Key View

• We forecast that credit growth in Russia will slow from 11.8% y-o-y at end-2022 to just 2.0% at the end of 2023.
• Corporate credit demand will prevent loans from contracting this year, while consumer lending will remain muted.
• We believe that elevated provisioning expenses and a deterioration in asset quality will weigh on banks’

Key View

• Tightening trade controls by Russia’s neighbours suggest that the country’s imports will rise by less than we had expected, leading us to revise our 2023 real GDP forecast from -5.0% to -3.5%.
• At the same time, we have revised down our medium- and long-term growth forecasts from an average of 1.3% 2024-2032 to an average of 0.9%.
• Ou

Key View

• Russia’s suspension of its participation in the New START Treaty will raise concerns about the potential future collapse of the agreement, which is the last major arms control treaty between the US and Russia.
• Although the treaty will remain intact for now, there is a risk that the treaty will eventually collapse, as there is

Key View

• Following the release of above consensus expectation data on full-year 2022 growth in Russia, risks to our forecast for a 5.0% contraction over 2023 are now skewed to the upside.
• We have identified several factors - not least alternative trading markets - that emerged as tailwinds to growth in 2022. Some of these dynamics will alter

Key View

• At Fitch Solutions, we think that another wave of military mobilisation in Russia is inevitable in 2023, as the country’s ability to make meaningful progress in Ukraine with its present resources is limited.
• However, we believe the expansion of the Russian armed forces would exacerbate labour market tightness, fanning inflation and