Key View: Despite surpassing growth forecasts, the Russian economy faces challenges from sanctions and industrial shifts. The Ukraine conflict is entering a static phase, with a centralized political system likely keeping policy changes minimal. The Central Bank may hold interest rates steady, while consumer spending growth remains modest due to

Key View

• As we expected, the US House of Representatives approved USD95bn in foreign aid on April 20 including USD60.7bn in aid for Ukraine (31.8% of GDP).
• The resumption of US military aid should provide Ukraine with just enough materiel to defend itself, but its forces will still lack resource volumes required to contest the battlefield

Please Note: BMI is enhancing its risk analysis with a new scoring system following acquisition of GeoQuant, a market-leading provider of political risk data. From March 27 2024, risk scores are inverted: zero now represents the lowest risk and 100 the highest, for clearer, industry-standard assessments. For further details, please refer to our

Key View

• In the event that Donald Trump returns to the US presidency, we do not believe that he would be able to deliver a significant rapprochement in US-Russia relations.
• On the US side, the vast majority of the US foreign policy and national security establishment views Russia with deep suspicion and would oppose any moves by Trump that

Key View

• Russia's automotive market will rely on imported vehicles over 2024-2033 due to sanctions and labour shortages, undoing the progress made in reducing vehicle imports over 2016-2022.
• Russia's passenger vehicle (PV) segment will face the most significant challenges over 2024-2033, as the PV manufacturing industry is starved of

Key View 

• As we expect Russia to remain isolated from the West through economic sanctions, its economy will experience various transformations not least in the industries that drive its growth, but also its trading partners. 
• When comparing Russia’s growth with that of Ukraine’s over the next decade, we expect to see a more rapid structural

Key View 

• As Russia’s economic isolation from the West increases, previously friendly neighbouring markets are finding the need to reconsider their relationships and allies.
• Notably, the Russia-Ukraine war has created new opportunities for markets along Russia’s periphery, due to shifting trade routes and outmigration from Russia. 
• Looking

The Russian household goods retail sector is notably fragmented and dominated by domestic firms. International sanctions have severely limited foreign direct investment, with only a small number of European and US companies maintaining a presence. The reinstatement of US sanctions in May 2018 has led to a more difficult business climate

Key View

• Russian LNG exports continue to be in high demand though new US sanctions targeting the Arctic LNG 2 expansion project could dent growth expectations.
• The first train at the Arctic LNG 2 development defied expectations with Novatek reporting that start-up was achieved, and first cargoes are due in early 2024.
• The planned Murmansk

Key View

• Taking into account the electoral landscape, we believe President Vladimir Putin is assured of victory in his re-election bid.
• Putin’s campaign will likely rely on a highly selective reading of the domestic economy, deliberately omitting significant discourse on the war.
• Despite discontent with the economic situation and a lack of