Content type

GCC Crisis: Inching Closer To Resolution?

Country Risk / Qatar / Fri 22 Nov, 2019

Key View:

  • Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Bahrain’s confirmation of attendance at this year’s Arabian Gulf Cup in Qatar may signal a thaw in the GCC crisis.
  • The confirmation comes on the back of several other positive developments, including a conciliatory shift in Saudi officials’ recent rhetoric towards Qatar.
  • All eyes will be on the Gulf Cup in
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Qatar Trade Surplus To Grow On Higher Gas Output And Import Slump

Oil & Gas / Qatar / Mon 18 Nov, 2019

Key View

  • We at Fitch Solutions have revised up Qatar’s 2020 current account forecast from 3.9% to 4.4% of GDP to account for weaker-than-expected import growth.
  • Lower-for-longer oil prices will be offset by rising gas production from the Barzan gas field that is expected to come online in Q419, keeping export growth in positive territory.
  • Fi
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Qatari Growth, Inflation To Remain Subdued Despite Rate Cut

Country Risk / Qatar / Wed 28 Aug, 2019

Key View

  • We at Fitch Solutions believe the 25bps lending rate cut by the QCB will have a limited impact on growth and inflation dynamics.
  • That said, we believe the QCB’s decision to leave the deposit rate unchanged despite a US rate cut will help to stabilise banks’ funding.
  • We currently forecast a US Fed hold in 2020, but see a higher
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Qatar Construction Sector Set For Rapid Cool Down

Infrastructure / Qatar / Fri 23 Aug, 2019

Key View

  • We have significantly revised down our construction industry growth forecast for Qatar, and we are now expecting a contraction in the sector in 2019, with growth to average -0.3% annually over our long-term forecast period (to 2028), compared to 8.2% y-o-y previously.
  • This downward revision was prompted by data releases for 2018 and
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Gulf Emergency Summit Unlikely To Spell End To GCC Crisis

Country Risk / Qatar / Fri 31 May, 2019

Key View:

  • Qatar’s attendance at Saudi Arabia’s Gulf security summit illustrates the GCC’s longstanding trend of pulling together in the face of external threats.
  • While this is positive for investor perceptions of political risk in the region, we at Fitch Solutions do not believe it signals a thaw in the wider GCC crisis in and of itself.
  • Indee
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Qatar's C/A Surplus To Narrow Temporarily

Country Risk / Qatar / Fri 24 May, 2019

Key View:

  • We at Fitch Solutions have revised down our forecast for Qatar’s current account surplus in 2019, from 7.5% of GDP to 6.4%, though we expect the surplus to widen to 7.7% in 2020.
  • The revision is primarily due to moderating oil price gains, which we believe will lead to a slight, temporary contraction in export growth.
  • Meanwhile
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Qatar Pressing Ahead With LNG Capacity Expansion

Oil & Gas / Qatar / Wed 22 May, 2019

Key View

  • Qatar is moving forward with its large-scale LNG capacity expansion plans, which should bring the country’s gas liquefaction capacity to up to 110.0mtpa by 2025, from 77.1mtpa currently.
  • Over the last few months, state-owned Qatar Petroleum has been regularly announcing tenders and awards for major contracts for the North Field
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