Key View

• We at Fitch Solutions see scope for an increase in Qatar’s Long-term Political Risk Index score, as the government has approved the new draft law regulating the first Shura Council elections in the country’s history.
• Though we have decided to leave our score unchanged until we observe any tangible impact of the law, we note that it

Key View

• At Fitch Solutions, we have revised our 2021 current account forecast for Qatar from a surplus of 1.6% of GDP to 3.8%, on the back of rising hydrocarbon prices, buoyed by the global economic recovery.
• In 2022, we forecast a further widening of the current account surplus to 6.0% of GDP, as a surge in tourists attending the FIFA World

Key View

• Qatar’s preferance for nearby LNG buyers is likely to continue and the country remains well positioned to supply LNG to a diverse portfolio of markets.
• Our outlook for Qatari LNG exports to Kuwait is particularly bullish, as the former is well-placed to capitalise on the latter’s aggressive push to bolster its LNG importing capabilit

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• Latest high-frequency indicators suggest the Qatari economy will witness a tougher Q121 than we had expected, due to slower growth in the non-oil sector and tighter restrictions following a spike in Covid-19 cases.
• That being said, we at Fitch Solutions remain bullish about the economic recovery thereafter, as a pickup in vaccine

Key View

• At Fitch Solutions, we have revised up our 2021 current account balance forecast from -2.0% of GDP to 1.6%.
• Our forecast change is predicated on our Oil & Gas team’s upward revision to global energy prices on the back of improving fundamentals.
• Qatar’s current account surpluses will be enough to cover upcoming FX-denominated debt

Key View

• At Fitch Solutions, we expect Qatar to post a budget surplus of 2.3% of GDP in 2021, compared to the government’s forecast for a 6.0% deficit.
• Our more optimistic view on Qatar’s fiscal trajectory is underpinned by our Oil & Gas team’s notably higher energy price forecasts, which we expect will feed through to a robust uptick in

Key View:

• At Fitch Solutions, we have revised our 2020 current account forecast from a deficit of 8.1% of GDP to a deficit of 4.1%.
• This revision is due to higher energy price forecasts from our Oil & Gas team and our belief that imports will fall further than we had originally thought due to falling domestic demand.
• We expect that the

Key View

• At Fitch Solutions, we believe that the Qatar Central Bank will keep its benchmark rate – the overnight lending rate – on hold at 2.50% over the rest of 2020.
• Meanwhile, deflationary pressures will persist on the back of a stronger US dollar, falling real estate prices and dissipating demand-pull pressures.
• This trend will however

Key View

• At Fitch Solutions, we forecast Qatar’s fiscal balance to come in at -5.9% of GDP in 2020, representing the first deficit since 2017.
• Our forecast assumes hydrocarbon revenues will halve this year as a result of collapsing energy prices.
• While the government will pare back headline spending – particularly on the capex side - we