Key View

• At Fitch Solutions, we expect Polish real GDP growth to decelerate to 3.9% and 3.5% in 2019 and 2020, respectively, from an estimated 5.1% in 2018.
• The contribution of net exports to growth is set to deteriorate, as Poland’s position in the German and Italian supply chains will suffer from rising trade uncertainties and softer global

• We now expect GDP to grow by 4.5% in 2018 and 3.8% in 2019, from 4.0% and 3.2% previously.
• After a strong first half of the year, growth will slow down in H218 as output and retail sales decelerate and sentiment worsens.
• An acceleration in investment and household consumption will partially offset a deterioration of the net trade position. 

I

Key View

• Polish government set to increase public healthcare financing significantly to 2024.
• Medicine reimbursement will follow suit, benefiting from this expansionary policy.
• We note that the government may fail to meet its targets given its history of policy implementation, posing downside risks to our market forecast.

Forecasts

Poland's