Key View

• At Fitch Solutions, we maintain our Polish GDP growth forecasts for 2020 and 2021 at -4.0% and 3.5% respectively.
• Our forecasts remain unchanged in spite of the 1.6% y-o-y growth figure for Q120, which was above our expectations, as we believe the economic fallout of the pandemic will only fully materialise in Q220.
• Our forecast is

Key View

• We now forecast real GDP growth of -4.0% in 2020 and 3.5% in 2021, from previous forecasts of 3.5% and 3.3% respectively.
• We expect confinement measures in Poland as well as in its main export markets to strongly dampen both internal and external demand for Polish goods and services.
• That said, we also expect the significant fiscal

Key View

• At Fitch Solutions, we expect the National Bank of Poland (NBP) to cut its key policy rate by 50 basis point by the end of 2020, to 0.0%.
• This additional monetary easing will aim to boost a strong recovery in economic growth following the fallout of the Covid-19 pandemic.
• The strongly expansionary stance of the NBP will be supported

Key View

• We forecast households within Poland within the USD75,000+ disposable income bracket to more than double between 2020-2023.
• The luxury market in Poland has the potential to develop both online via e-commerce, as well as through traditional brick-and-mortar including department stores and hotels.
• Travel retail outlets will also

Key View

• At Fitch Solutions, we maintain that GDP growth will average 3.9% and 3.5% in 2019 and 2020 respectively.
• Household consumption will increase its contribution to overall economic growth in 2020, as a significant minimum wage increase and fiscal expansion will boost households’ disposable income.
• That said, economic growth will

Key View

• At Fitch Solutions, we now expect inflation to average 2.2% in 2019 and 3.3% in in 2020, from a previous forecast of 2.0% and 2.5% respectively.
• Increasing tightness in the labour market, combined with strengthening domestic demand and a new tax on large retailers, will put upward pressure on prices in the coming quarters.
• We now