Key View

• We have adjusted our 2021 and 2022 growth forecasts for Poland from 4.0% and 4.4%, respectively, to 4.6% and 5.0%, reflecting the expectation of a faster return to pre-pandemic output levels than previously anticipated.
• Our revisions are catalysed by the release of stronger-than-expected high frequency data for May 2021, such as

Key View

• At Fitch Solutions, we maintain our real GDP forecasts for Poland at 3.7% in 2021 and 4.4% in 2022, despite a severe third wave of Covid-19 and the consequent extension of lockdown measures.
• An improving global macroeconomic backdrop will create positive knock-on effects for Polish exports in H121 and prevent a deeper fallout. This

Key View

• Offshore wind is poised to play a large role in the Polish power sector presenting a upside risks to our wind forecasts due to broad government support, conducive policy and a growing project pipeline.
• The offshore wind project pipeline has developed significantly with widespread foreign involvement and a number of projects

Key View

• Poland and most of Europe is suffering from a second wave of Covid-19, leading to tightening of restrictions.
• The country has a low level of healthcare spending compared to European peers, causing concerns regarding the capability of its healthcare system to cope.
• Due to quotas on university medical education and the emigration of

Key View:

• Poland's rail infrastructure sub-sector will exhibit sustained growth across our forecast period, with the successful track record of maintenance and expansion works in the market's rail network, combined with the continued presence of European Union (EU) financing, supportive for this outlook.
• Though infrastructure works on Poland

Key View:

• Polish operators are ramping up mobile network investment, which is aimed at seizing opportunities arising from the launch of 5G.
• Cost-effective deployment remains a priority, with telcos entering network sharing agreements and looking to monetise their mobile assets.
• A possible ban on the use of Huawei equipment poses a downside

Key View

• We at Fitch Solutions forecast Poland’s current account deficit to widen marginally to 1.8% of GDP in 2020, from a previous forecast of 1.5%, before narrowing to 1.0% in 2021.
• Covid-19 induced disruptions to exports will drive Poland’s trade balance into a 1.7% deficit in 2020 from a 0.5% surplus in 2019.
• Weaker exports will be