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• We forecast real household spending to grow by 5.0% in 2022, decelerating from the estimated growth of 5.7% in 2021. However, we note that the Covid-19 pandemic and the related restrictions on economic activity resulted in real household spending growth contracting by 3.5% in 2020 and this created a low base for growth in 2021 and

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• We hold a positive outlook for the Polish household goods market over both the short term and the long term. Household goods spending in Poland will recover quickly from the impact of Covid-19, as income stability and the 'Stay-At-Home, Invest-In-The-Home' trend drives spending growth.
• Over the medium term, structural trends, such as

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• At Fitch Solutions, we forecast a marked acceleration in loan growth in Poland from an expected 4.5% in 2021 to 11.0% in 2022 as the economy continues to expand at an above-trend rate.
• We do not expect the National Bank of Poland’s present hiking cycle, which will see the bank’s key policy rate rising to 2.50% by end-2022, to derail

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• At Fitch Solutions, we forecast that Poland’s current account surplus will narrow from a record high of 3.0% of GDP in 2020 to 1.6% and 1.4% in 2021 and 2022.
• Soaring energy prices and a weaker PLN outlook will increase the cost of imports at the same time as global supply chain issues disrupt Poland’s export-orientated industrial

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• At Fitch

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• The National Bank of Poland (NBP) has begun to tighten monetary policy earlier and more aggressively than previously anticipated, hiking its key reference rate by 40 basis points (bps) from 0.10% to 0.50% on October 6 2021.
• Over the final months of 2021, we expect the NBP to keep rates on hold at 0.50% before raising the key policy

Key View

• Poland's food spending patterns are gradually evolving, as households earn higher incomes and have more access to a wider array of food products. Food spending will fall from 19.1% of household spending in 2006, to 14.2% in 2025.
• Poles are consuming more dairy products, as a large production base feeds through into a wider array of

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• At Fitch Solutions, we have revised up our 2021 real GDP forecast for Poland, from 4.6% y-o-y growth to 4.8% whilst maintaining the view that 2022 growth will be even higher at 5.0%.
• Our revision is driven by upward adjustments to our household and government consumption forecasts after a breakdown of Q221 GDP, released on August 31

Key View

• At Fitch Solutions, we expect Poland’s current account surplus to narrow from a record high of 3.6% of GDP in 2020 to 2.4% in 2021 and 2.0% in 2022.
• Higher commodity prices, combined with a revived consumer appetite for imported goods, will lead import growth to outstrip that of exports in 2021 and 2022, narrowing Poland’s trade

Key View

• At Fitch Solutions, we now expect that the National Bank of Poland will hike its reference rate by 15 basis point (bps) in Q421, bringing the key policy rate from an all-time low of 0.10% to 0.25%.
• We previously expected policymakers to leave their rate on hold this year, before hiking by 25bp in 2022.
• Considering significant