Key View

• The National Bank of Poland made a smaller-than-expected hike to its key policy rate on July 7, increasing rates by 50 basis points from 6.00% to 6.50%, compared to consensus expectations of 75 basis points.
• In our view, concerns over slowing economic activity will lead the National Bank of Poland to end its present hiking cycle in

Key View

• Following two rate hikes in as many months, we have raised our end-2022 forecast for Poland’s key policy rate from 6.50% to 7.25%.
• In our view, inflation in Poland will peak in Q322. We expect that policymakers will stop hiking after two consecutive months of disinflation as they have signalled.
• We have revised up our annual average

Key View: Latest data from Q122 shows that there is widespread support for EVs in Poland with sales of BEVs increasing by 140.0% y-o-y and PHEVs by 107.0%. Consequently we have a positive outlook for EV sales in 2022 and have made an upward revision to our EV sales outlook with sales increasing by 30.7%, up from 20.4% previously.

Key View

• We at Fitch Solutions, have revised down our forecasts for Poland’s client loan growth to 5.8% and 5.5% in 2022 and 2023 respectively, from 6.0% and 7.5% previously.
• Our revisions reflect a slowdown in economic momentum as a result of Poland’s exposure to the war in Ukraine, rising interest rates and high inflation. However, stronger

Key View

• In Q122, the Polish economy expanded by 2.4% q-o-q and 8.5% y-o-y, compared to consensus expectations of 1.8% q-o-q and 7.1% y-o-y.
• In light of the Poland’s above-expectation Q122 GDP figures, we at Fitch Solutions have revised our 2022 growth forecast to 4.1% across the full-year.
• This said, we do expect Poland to enter a mild

Key View

• At Fitch Solutions, we expect Poland’s external position to deteriorate in 2022 as a result of knock-on effects from the war in Ukraine and supply-chain blockages in China.
• We forecast the country’s current account deficit to widen from 0.6% of GDP in 2021 to 2.0% in 2022, driven chiefly by a deepening trade balance deficit.
• In 2023

Key View

• At Fitch Solutions, we now see the National Bank of Poland (NBP) hiking its policy rate to 6.00% by end-year, from 5.00% previously, as a war-induced boost to food and energy prices fans pre-existing inflationary pressures.
• On April 6, the NBP increased its key policy rate from 3.50% to 4.50% after inflation rose 3.2% m-o-m to 10.9%

Key View

• At Fitch Solutions, we believe that tighter monetary policy conditions and a softer growth outlook will weaken credit demand in Poland in 2022.
• Consequently, we have revised down our client loan growth forecast for 2022 from 11.0% y-o-y to 6.0%, although this remains higher than 2021’s growth rate of 5.1%.
• Risks to our outlook stem

Key View

• We at Fitch Solutions have revised down our 2022 real GDP forecast for Poland from 4.9% to 4.5% as we expect higher interest rates to dampen corporate borrowing for investment projects.
• Household consumption will remain the largest contributor to headline growth as tight labour market conditions maintain upward pressure on wages.
• As

Key View

• Poland will see ongoing activity in the development of hydrogen infrastructure in the medium-term, with the market's growing renewables capacity offering support for green hydrogen production to fuel industrial processes.
• Policy support for the adoption of hydrogen, at both the national and European Union level, will serve to