Key View

• We forecast Polish economic growth to decelerate from 5.1% in 2022 to 0.7% in 2023, compared to a pre-pandemic 10-year average of 3.6%, amid sticky inflation and tighter monetary conditions.
• In our view, the Polish economy will avoid a recession in 2023. However, we anticipate negative GDP growth in Q423 amid elevated energy and food

Key View

• In our view, the import bans on Ukrainian grain and other agricultural products introduced by Poland, Hungary and Slovakia will not be renewed after their expiration in June.
• Instead, we think an EU-level solution will be found to the grain supply glut that has caused grain price distortion in the domestic markets of several CEE

Key View

• We expect the construction of the Solidarity Transport Hub project to contribute to higher airport and rail investment in Poland, throughout our forecast period from 2023 to 2032.

• While we expect the CPK to progress towards the construction phase, we view its airport component as vulnerable to project slippage and delays, which

Key View

• At Fitch Solutions we expect Poland’s current account deficit to narrow in 2023 to 3.8% of GDP from a decade high of 4.6% in 2022 as improving terms of trade and a robust service sector provides tailwinds to the country’s exports.
• Weaker import growth of a forecast 0.8% for the full year compared with 3.0% in 2022 will also help

Key View

• Large upward revisions to H122 GDP data alongside much stronger-than-expected Q322 growth have led us to revise up our full-year GDP forecast from 3.7% to 5.0%.
• Most notably, the Polish Statistical Office revised up Q122 growth from 2.5% q-o-q and 8.5% y-o-y to 4.2% q-o-q and 10.5% y-o-y, throwing off our H222 growth profile.
• Lookin

Key View

• At Fitch Solutions, we think that Poland is highly unlikely to trigger Article 4 of the NATO treaty in response to a stray Ukrainian missile that struck a village in eastern Poland on November 15.

• However, the incident will raise questions within NATO about how it would’ve responded had the missile been Russian and strengthen

Key View

• Poland’s pharmaceutical sector aims to strengthen ties with the US, as such benefitting the US drugmakers.
• With the implementation of a ten-year development plan, Poland’s pharmaceutical market will become more attractive to innovative drugmakers.
• Poland aims to become a regional leader in biotechnology in Central Eastern Europe.

Key View

• A new Poland-EU funds dispute poses some downside risks to public investment in Poland.
• At Fitch Solutions, we believe that the Polish government will be forced to make judicial reforms in order to avoid losing access to EUR76.5bn in EU cohesion funding over 2021-2027.
• In our view, cooperation with the EU over cohesion fund

Key View

• New data from Polish regulator UKE show that fibre-to-the-home (FTTH) uptake was higher than we previously expected in 2021.
• We have amended our forecasts to reflect the strong growth that FTTx connectivity will show in the medium term, in line with operator and independent wholesaler rollouts.
• We maintain our view that the polish

Key View

• At Fitch Solutions, we believe that the incumbent PiS party are likely to remain the largest party in the Sejm in the upcoming parliamentary elections in Autumn 2023.
• We think PiS is unlikely to win an outright majority, meaning they will have to form another coalition. However, we do not think PiS will want to continue its present