The Latest: The National Bank of Poland cut its main reference rate by 25 basis points (bps) to 5.75% on October 4, following an initial 75bp cut on September 6 which surprised markets and led to a sell-off for the Polish zloty (down 3.4% vs the EUR in the month). The October decision was in line with our own and Bloomberg consensus expectations

Key View

• Following the NBP's surprise 75bps rate cut on September 6, we have cut our forecasts for the Polish policy rate to 5.75% for end-2023 (previously 6.75%) and 4.25% by end-2024 (previously 5.00%).
• The NBP’s greater preference for supporting growth over the medium term, even as inflation stays elevated relative to historical trend

Key View

• We believe that Poland’s ruling Law and Justice Party (PiS) will lose seats at parliamentary elections on October 15, leading it to turn to the far-right Confederation Party to pass legislation.
• This more diverse coalition will raise fiscal and political risks, as we expect continued standoffs with the EU under such a leadership

Key View: We maintain a moderate outlook regarding the Polish consumer over the remainder of 2023 and into 2024. While the subdued growth in real household spending mirrors the broader slowdown in the Polish economy, we expect a modest recovery in consumption towards the end of 2023 and into 2024 as inflationary headwinds unwind and real wages

The Polish life insurance line is one of the best developed in the Central and Eastern European region and benefits from a diverse range of products aimed at individual and enterprise clients. Market competition is growing, but a state-owned monopoly dominates the landscape with a growing tail of more than 25 local and foreign firms competing for

Key View

• The Polish current account balance will flip into surplus of 0.7% of GDP in 2023 after posting a record deficit of 3.0% of GDP in 2022.
• This year’s current account surplus will be driven by the widening in Poland’s goods and services trade surplus from 1.9% of GDP in 2022 to 4.5% in 2023.
• Economic weakness in key export markets will

Key View

• We have kept our forecast for Poland’s end-2023 main policy rate unchanged at 6.75% following the National Bank of Poland’s (NBP) June 5-6 rate setting meeting, where it held rates at 6.75% for the ninth consecutive meeting.
• A pivot towards looser monetary policy in H224 will be largely driven by improvements in the economic and

Key View

• Elevated inflation will force the National Bank of Poland to keep its key policy rate elevated at 6.75% throughout 2023 before cutting rates by 175 basis points to 5.00% by year-end as price pressure moderate.
• We expect another year of hot inflation in Poland with annual price growth moderating only slightly from an average of 14.5%