Key View

• The Philippines’ refining sector has been left reeling in the wake of Shell’s decision to permanently close its crude oil refining facility after decades of being in operation.
• The closure of Shell’s Tabangao plant leaves the Philippines with a single operating refinery.
• The economic repercussions could prove to be substantial.

The Latest

In September 2020, Philippine telecom incumbents PLDT and Globe Telecom separately announced plans to upgrade their fixed and mobile networks. PLDT will upgrade all last-mile copper broadband connections to fibre over the course of 18 months, while Globe will upgrade all its cell sites to support LTE by end-2021 and speed up fibre-to

Key View

• We at Fitch Solutions expect the Philippines to run a budget deficit of 9.3% of GDP in 2020, revised up from a previous forecast of 8.0%, as revenues slump more aggressively than previously expected, due to the Covid-19 pandemic.
• The government will maintain a loose fiscal policy stance over the medium term to support the economic

Key View

• Increasing traction on plans to develop nuclear power in the Philippines will pose an upside risk to our bearish forecasts.
• Nuclear power will offer an effective solution to meet the country’s rising power demands over the coming decade, particularly as coal-fired power - which the Philippines has largely turned to - comes under

Key View

• We at Fitch Solutions believe the Bangko Ng Sentral Pilipinas (BSP) will keep its key policy rate on hold at 2.25% through the rest of 2020, before becoming more hawkish as the economy recovers in 2021.
• The BSP may opt to use other tools to support credit growth in Q420 and Q121, to aid the economy through continued disruption from

Key View

• We have turned bearish on the growth of the Philippines’ construction sector in 2020, and we now expect the sector to experience a full-year contraction of 9.8% y-o-y in real terms. This sharp downward revision is underpinned by a dismal Q220 performance, and the escalating Covid-19 pandemic situation in Luzon.
• Both the

Key View

• Regulatory hurdles, which have been a key stumbling block for internet service providers (ISPs) in deploying their networks, are contributing to a pivot toward fixed-wireless services for broadband connectivity.
• The lower-value nature of these connections will likely mean that operator revenue growth will unlikely keep pace with

Key View

• In 2019, universal healthcare act in the Philippines was signed into law by President Duterte.
• Covid-19 exposed gaps in the country’s health system.
• Due to diversion of healthcare funds, the state health insurer might not meet medical coverage goal.

The Philippines has moved a step closer to implementing universal healthcare.

Key View

• Despite an expected economic recession in the Philippines in 2020, which will pose headwinds to the medical device market, commercial opportunities are still on the rise.
• Funding from the Philippines Charity Sweepstakes Office (PCSO), as well as the Philippine Amusement and Gaming Corporation (PAGCOR), will provide opportunities for

Key View

• At Fitch Solutions, we maintain our end-2020 key policy rate forecast of 2.25%, after the Bangko Ng Sentral Pilipinas (BSP) cut its key policy rate 50 basis points (bps) from 2.75% in line with our expectation.
• We believe the BSP will instead lean on other monetary policy tools, such as expanding its balance sheet or lowering the