Key View

• We at Fitch Solutions forecast the Bangko Sentral Ng Pilipinas (BSP) to keep its policy rate on hold at 2.00% through to H222 before hiking 50 basis points (bps) by end-2022.
• We expect the surge in inflation to prove temporary on the back of a moderation in energy and food prices, as well as spare capacity within the Philippine

Key View

• The Philippines economy will struggle to recover amid its continued struggles containing the Covid-19 pandemic and normalising economic activity.
• In particular, domestic activity will rebound slower as output falls sharply in Q221 due to renewed lockdown measures.
• We at Fitch Solutions forecast real GDP to grow 5.3% in 2021, revised

Key View: We forecast real household spending in the Philippines to begin to recover in 2021, growing by 5.7% y-o-y, after the Covid-19 pandemic led to an estimated contraction of -7.9% y-o-y in 2020. The Filipino government has been active in providing fiscal support for households. While fiscal stimulus for the wider economy will bring down

Key View

• We at Fitch Solutions forecast real GDP growth of 7.6% in 2021 in the Philippines, following a 9.5% contraction in 2020.
• Household consumption remains key to the growth rebound, with a recovery in gross capital formation dependent on stronger domestic demand.
• Risks are tilted heavily to the downside, with the Philippines highly

Key View

• Amid the Covid-19 pandemic, education and infrastructure allocations edge out health funding in Philippines 2021 budget.
• The proposed 2021 government budget will set aside an amount for the purchase of Covid-19 vaccines, which the government plans to administer to the general population by the second quarter of 2021.
• We highlight

Key View

• The Philippines' 2021 budget will focus on shifting the economy from its Covid-19-led contraction towards an investment-led rebound, with the focus on infrastructure.
• However, we highlight the risk that the economy could face further Covid-19 outbreaks that divert funds towards the pandemic response and suppress revenues, thereby

Key View

• We have revised our coal generation forecasts from post-2026 and now expect it to grow at a much slower rate than we previously expected, with further downside risks as coal projects continues to face strong and increasing public opposition.
• Our forecast revisions result from the moratorium on coal power projects that was announced

Key Views:

• Total vehicle sales in the Philippines will experience double-digit growth in 2021, owing to favourable base effects as demand returns albeit at a slow pace.
• We expect the commercial vehicle (CV) segment to outperform passenger vehicle (PV) sales in 2021 and between 2021-2024 as the Philippines government unveils an infrastructure

Key View

• We at Fitch Solutions believe the Philippine economy will struggle to maintain its recovery momentum in Q420 as domestic containment measures weigh on activity and demand.
• In 2021, base effects and supportive fiscal and monetary policy stances should drive a rebound, with the economy returning to pre-pandemic levels by mid-2022.
• We

Key View

• We hold an optimistic outlook for both the consumption of and the spending on coffee products in the Philippines, with the beverage already popular in the country's households.
• While Instant coffee still accounts for the largest proportion of coffee consumption in the country, there is a rapidly developing niche market for specialty