Key View

• At Fitch Solutions, we hold a positive outlook for the Philippines’ dairy sector over the medium term (2022-2025), with spending on dairy products forecast to grow by an average of 9.1% per year over this period.
• In 2022, 75.1% of households in the Philippines will earn between USD1,000 to 10,000 per annum, placing them within the

Key View

• Following market contractions in 2020 and 2021, Philippines’ medical devices market will grow at high-single digit CAGR.

• It is our view that expected policy continuity following the 2022 election and the normalisation on monetary policy will help drive growth in The Philippines.

• Following Covid-19 related falls in trade

Key View

• We hold a favourable view for Philippines coffee spending over the medium term (2022-2025), with spending on coffee forecast to grow by an average of 8.1% a year over the forecast period.
• While the local coffee scene has historically been dominated by instant coffee, we note of a growing premiumisation trend, with middle-income

Key View

• We at Fitch Solutions believe there remains a strong possibility that Sara Duterte could still run for president, despite not filing for candidacy before the October 8 2021 deadline.
• The announced presidential candidates offered few surprises, and we believe that most candidates will provide some policy continuity from the Duterte

Key View

• We at Fitch Solutions maintain our expectation for the Bangko Sentral Ng Pilipinas (BSP) to keep its key policy rate on hold at 2.00% through 2021, but we now expect 75 basis points (bps) of hikes in 2022 to 2.75%, revised upwards from 50bps previously.
• External pressures from the US Fed, a gradual recovery in domestic activity and

Key View

• We at Fitch Solutions view the ongoing dispute within the governing PDP-Laban party as weakening the prospect of a straightforward contest between the pro-Duterte and anti-Duterte camps for the presidency and vice presidency ahead of the May 2022 elections.
• The infighting could provide an opportunity for opposition candidates, but

Key View

• We maintain our forecasts for the Philippines construction sector to rebound strongly in 2021 due to strong project activity and government expenditure over recent months.
• This is subjected to increasing downside risks due to Covid resurgences from the more infectious Delta variant and heightened containment measures which might see

Key View

• We have revised down our outlook for Philippines’ real GDP growth in 2021, from 5.3% to 4.2%, given the continued disruptions to output from Covid-19 outbreaks.
• While growth rebounded to 11.8% y-o-y in Q221, underlying weaknesses were evident in the 1.3% q-o-q contraction caused by mobility restrictions in this period.
• We anticipate

Key View

• We forecast real household spending in Philippines to post growth of 4.0% y-o-y in 2021, the start of a recovery from the 8.3% y-o-y contraction in household spending estimated over 2020. In 2021, total household spending (in real terms) will reach PHP10.6trn (USD221.1bn), which remains down on the total spending of PHP11.1trn (USD215

Key View

• Rising drug prices have been a concern in the Philippines long before the Covid-19 pandemic.
• The introduction of a maximum retail price scheme will exacerbate a tough environment, with price controls being applied at all stages of the supply chain.
• Over the longer term, with higher volume sales and greater competition in the market