Key View

• The Philippines faces several domestic and external challenges, and we retain our STPRI score at 68.1 to reflect this.
• Internationally, the Philippines will continue to strengthen ties with the US-led West amid ongoing tensions in the South China Sea.
• On the domestic front, high inflation and interest rates will continue to weigh on

Key View

• Globe Telecom-operated e-wallet platform GCash now dominates the Philippines' digital payment market with a full suite of fintech services; its planned IPO, scheduled for 2024/25, will therefore be timely for the product's enhancement and development.
• GCash's overseas expansion provides an opportunity to raise its pre-IPO valuation

Key View

• The BSP left its benchmark policy rate on hold for the fourth consecutive meeting on September 1 2023. But we now think that it will hike by an additional 25bps by year-end.
• Rising price pressures alongside a rising likelihood of a hike by the US Federal Reserve will prompt the BSP to resume its tightening cycle.
• We think that the

Key View

• On June 22, the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas kept its key policy rate on hold at 6.25% for the second consecutive time.
• Given that inflation is falling faster than we originally anticipated, economic activity is starting to soften and the US Fed is nearing the end of its tightening cycle, we now think that policy rates will be kept on

Key View

• We believe that the market is working towards increased energy security, mainly in supplying the electricity sector, evidenced by the operation licence extension of the Malampaya gas field. This will aid the market's prospects for gas-fired power generation, and place downside risks on the market's liquified natural gas imports.
• The

Key View

• Real GDP growth in the Philippines eased from 7.1% y-o-y in Q422 to 6.4% in Q123 and we think that it will slow further over the coming quarters.
• The lagged impact of interest rate hikes will weigh more heavily on domestic activity, while weakness in external demand will drag on Philippine exports.
• As such, we maintain our 2023 real