Key View

• We now forecast that Papua New Guinea's real GDP growth will slow to 3.1% in 2023, from a previous forecast of 3.7% and an estimated 3.8% in 2022.
• This revisions reflects a weaker outlook for export growth, largely due to continued to delays in reopening the Porgera gold mine, which is now unlikely to resume full operations until

Key View

• Papua New Guinea's Prime Minister James Marape will benefit from an 18-month grace period following his re-election in August 2022, during which time the opposition will not be able to table a no-confidence vote against the leader.
• This should ensure relatively smooth policymaking and policy continuity during 2023, and we hold our

Key View

• We at Fitch Solutions have lowered our real GDP growth forecasts for Papua New Guinea to 4.6% in 2022 and 5.0% in 2023, from a previous 4.9% and 5.2% respectively.
• The economy will be supported by a robust recovery in exports particularly once the key Porgera mine reopens, while domestic demand should remain buoyed by recent

Key View

• We at Fitch Solutions have lowered our forecast for GDP growth in Papua New Guinea (PNG) in 2021 to 1.5%, from a previous 2.4%, as the country grapples with the third wave of Covid-19 outbreaks.
• Though we maintain our view that growth will recover to 4.4% in 2022, the very low take up of Covid-19 vaccines will leave the country

Key View

• We at Fitch Solutions believe that the Papua New Guinea government will seek tangible progress in key energy and mining projects to support an improved economic outlook ahead of the mid-2022 general election.
• We currently forecast real GDP of 2.4% in 2021, rising to 4.4% in 2022 as economic conditions normalise and business

Key View

• A deteriorating fiscal position will threaten the government's capacity to invest in key projects that will support economic development.
• Public debt is at risk of rising above the government's threshold of 35% of GDP, leaving the country more vulnerable to adverse shocks that restrict external financing.
• We at Fitch Solutions