Key View

• Quotations for Pakistani rice exports (25% broken) climbed to an average of USD503 per tonne in May 2023, an increase of 11.0% m-o-m, to their highest level since August 2008. Price increases have been driven by several interrelated factors including the 2022 floods, domestic price inflation and consumer product substitution, the

Key View

• Pakistani policymakers held their key rate at 21.00% on 12 June, and our core view is that they will keep the key rate at this level until the end of this calendar year.
• While many analysts seem to expect that policymakers will cut the repo rate later this year, we do not expect that policymakers will be in a position to loosen

Key View

• At Fitch Solutions, we forecast real GDP in Pakistan to contract by 0.8% in FY2022/23 (from -0.3% previously), before expanding by 2.5% in FY2023/24.
• Our expectation for a sharper contraction in FY2022/23 comes as the IMF funds under the ninth review have not been disbursed, delaying the country of much-needed FX reserves.
• In FY2023

Key View

• Following the State Bank of Pakistan’s decision to hike its key policy rate by 100bps at its latest meeting on April 4, we at Fitch Solutions now forecast the key policy rate to end FY2022/23 (July-June) at 22.00% (revised from 21.00%) and to reach a peak of 23.00% in FY2023/24.
• With inflation likely to remain above the State Bank of

Key View

• On January 23 2023, Pakistan experienced a blackout across nearly the whole market due to a grid failure, reflecting the market’s ageing national grid network.
• Pakistan’s ability to secure fuel feedstock will remain a key challenge for its power sector expansion on top of the unreliable and unstable power grid.
• We expect upside

Key View

• At Fitch Solutions, we have revised down our forecast for real GDP in Pakistan to contract by 0.3% in FY2022/23, compared to a growth of 0.2% previously.
• We believe that headwinds to growth are intensifying due to rising domestic inflation and a weakening global macroeconomic backdrop.
• Devastation caused by floods and the reversal

Key View

• The State Bank of Pakistan unexpectedly hiked its policy rate by 100 basis points in November, and further increases are likely to follow over the coming months given the very difficult outlook for inflation.
• Nevertheless, a stabilisation in global monetary conditions next year and easing external pressure will soon allow the central

The latest: On October 21, the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) disqualified former Prime Minister Imran Khan from public office. The opposition leader was accused of failing to disclose details of gifts presented to him and proceeds from their alleged sale. In response, Khan filed an appeal in the Islamabad High Court on October 22 to

Key View

• Following the State Bank of Pakistan’s decision on October 10 to keep its policy rate on hold at 15.00%, we at Fitch Solutions have lowered our forecast for the policy rate to reach 16.25% by end-FY2022/23 (July-June), from 18.00% previously.
• We believe that the central bank will soon resume its tightening cycle on the back of still

Key View

• We expect the severe floods in Pakistan to weigh on agricultural production and exacerbate the country’s external imbalances, and have revised our real GDP growth forecast for FY2022/23 down to 0.2%, from 0.6% previously.
• A reduction in crop production will also likely lead to higher inflation, which could in turn prompt the State