Key View

• Despite a concerning collapse in private consumption growth in Q123, we have revised upwards our GDP growth forecasts for 2023 from 1.1% to 1.2% as we expect the government to drive a greater impetus to growth as it taps into its sovereign wealth fund.
• We expect government spending to add 0.4pp to growth (previous forecast: -0.5pp).

Key View: After registering minimal growth in 2022 (+2.2% y-o-y), we expect the Norwegian electric vehicle (EV) market to recover its traction in 2023 and grow 4.8% y-o-y to 168,900 units. This implies a domestic EV penetration rate (EV sales as % of total vehicle sales) of 78.5%. We mainly base our view on the expected positive impact related to

Key View

• We note electricity security concerns for Norway as we expect increased consumption from electrification, as well as decreased supply driven by elevated drought risks that undermine Norway’s largest power source.
• The uncertainty surrounding stable energy supply for Norway’s industry adds considerable downside risks to our long-term

Key View

• After inflation remained hot in February (6.3% y-o-y) and Norges Bank sees little reason to end its hiking cycle after its latest meeting, we have revised up our terminal rate forecast by 25 basis points (bps) to 3.25%.
• We now expect Norges Bank to hike an additional 25bps in their next meeting on May 4 as core inflationary pressures

Key View

• We at Fitch Solutions remain cautiously optimistic about Norway’s autos market for 2023, and forecast vehicle sales to expand 2.5% y-o-y to 25,300 units, despite an environment with weaker economic fundamentals.
• We believe that most of the growth in Norwegian vehicle sales in 2023 will come from the electric vehicle (EV) segment

Key View

• Following lower-than-expected liquids production in 2022, Norway’s oil production is set to hit record annual highs in 2023 as Phase Two of the Johan Sverdrup project comes online.
• Extensive demand in Europe for gas suppliers to replace Russian imports will continue to motivate heightened Norwegian natural gas output, which will

Key View

• We at Fitch Solutions expect the Norwegian current account surplus to widen to 22.1% of GDP in 2023 from 21.8% in 2022 as European energy demand keeps Norwegian petroleum exports elevated.
• We expect that as a share of GDP goods exports will remain relatively constant at 47.7% of GDP in 2023 compared to 48.1% in 2022.
• As Norwegian

Key View: We believe that Norway’s EV sales will decline by 8.7% y-o-y in 2022, as vehicle supply issues hold back the market. We expect EV sales to recover in 2023, as the semiconductor shortage somewhat eases and as more affordable Mainland China's EVs enter the local market, with offerings such as battery swapping stations.

Key View

• We at Fitch Solutions have revised down our forecast for Norwegian real GDP growth in 2022 to 2.8% (from 3.6% previously) and in 2023 to 1.7% (from 2.5%).
• Our revisions reflect weaker-than-expected data in the year-to-May 2022, as well as a deepening cost of living crisis and notable tightening of financial conditions.
• A robust

Key View

• Norwegian real GDP contracted by 1.0% q-o-q in Q122 (+4.8% y-o-y), which to a large extent reflected a soft start to the year for the oil and gas sector.
• We maintain our view that Norwegian real GDP will expand by 3.6% in 2022, with growth set to return to positive territory on a q-o-q basis from Q222.
• A tight labour market will