Nuclear tensions between North Korea and its neighbours will persist for the foreseeable future, even if dialogue resumes. Pyongyang is determined to perfect its intercontinental nuclear missile capabilities and will not give up its arsenal, but could eventually agree to a freeze in return for diplomatic and economic incentives from Washington.

Al

Although we do not anticipate US military action against North Korea in the near term, the possibility will grow as Pyongyang comes closer to achieving the ability to deliver a nuclear strike on the continental United States. In this scenario, we consider the implications of the US attacking North Korea.

North Korea continues to make progress in

Several developments of late suggest that something unusual is taking place in North Korea, but as yet, there is no firm evidence of a coup.

Firstly, the country's supreme leader Kim Jong Un has not appeared since September 3, and he skipped a once-or-twice-yearly session of the Supreme People's Assembly on September 25. Although Kim's father Kim