Key View

• At Fitch Solutions, we forecast that Nigeria’s federal budget deficit will widen from 4.4% of GDP in 2019 to 5.4% in 2020 and 5.2% in 2021.
• We expect that lower oil exports and weakened domestic activity will weigh on revenue generation this year. Low revenues will weigh on capital spending, but current expenditure will remain

Key View

• Following a benchmark interest rate cut of 100 basis points to 12.50% in the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN)’s May policy decision, our core view is that the CBN will refrain from further stimulus due to high and rising inflation. However, its shift to a more dovish stance leaves risk to our forecast weighted to the downside.
• Despite

Key View

• At Fitch Solutions, we believe that the Covid-19 pandemic driving Nigeria into recession and a further deterioration of living standards will elevate political risks in 2020.
• The government's decision to gradually ease lockdown measures poses risks of a greater rise in Covid-19 cases, while the virus will also exacerbate Nigeria's

Key View

• At Fitch Solutions we forecast Nigeria's headline inflation rate to accelerate from an average of 11.4% in 2019 to 12.4% in 2020 and 12.9% over 2021, with risks to the upside amid rising food prices.
• We expect a combination of rising inflation and muted economic growth to lead the Central Bank of Nigeria to hold its policy interest

Key View

• Import overreliance and high prevalence of counterfeit medicines will weigh on pharmaceutical market growth in Nigeria.
• Efforts to digitalise pharmacy practice are jeopardised by weak regulatory environment and ubiquity of unregistered premises.
• Opportunities for innovative drugmakers will remain limited in the country due to long

Key View

• We at Fitch Solutions expect a temporary uptick in Nigeria’s oil production to bring real GDP growth to 2.3% in 2019, from 1.9% in 2018, though stagnating output thereafter will see growth slow to 2.1% in 2020.
• Fiscal constraints will continue to weigh on the government's capacity to stimulate growth via capital expenditure, while