Key View

• We at Fitch Solutions expect the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) to hike its benchmark policy rate by 100 basis points to 12.50% in H221 as growth ticks up . The CBN will then likely hold throughout 2022.
• Inflation is likely to remain elevated over the coming quarters – and rise to an average of 14.6% in 2021, compared to 13.2% in 2020

Key View

• The most recent data from Nigeria’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reflects the country’s persistently high inflation, which continues to erode consumer purchasing power.
• This poses a downside risk to our 2021 forecast for food and non-alcoholic drinks spending, as households in the country are yet to recover from the negative

Key View

• We believe Nigeria’s vehicle production outlook for 2021 and beyond has turned negative following the implementation of the 2020 Finance Act which reduced import duties on imported vehicles.
• Nigeria’s automotive production will remain attractive over the longer term as a high driving age population offers an attractive incentive for

Key View

• We at Fitch Solutions estimate that Nigeria’s real GDP contracted by 3.2% in 2020 as a result of the Covid-19 pandemic, which caused a sharp fall in demand for the country’s main export, oil.
• The economy is likely to return to moderate growth of 2.3% in 2021 as a recovery in the oil sector strengthens exports and government revenues

Key View

• Members of Nigeria’s government continue to work towards enhancing the country’s healthcare system.
• Healthcare budget allowances remain well below the Abuja declaration amount and are not enough to meet the country’s healthcare needs.
• Alternative funding for healthcare development would benefit local healthcare systems.

Members of

Key View

• Revenue risks will limit private investment in Nigeria's power sector, as a lack of payment from customers leads to funding constraints throughout the supply chain.
• Insufficient gas transport infrastructure and widespread security risks in the Niger Delta expose gas power plant projects to considerable fuel supply risks.
• Despite

Key View

• Covid-19 continues to pose macroeconomic challenges in Nigeria.
• ESP outlines increased investment in healthcare R&D.
• GDP growth will start to slowly recover in 2021.

Covid-19 continues to pose macroeconomic challenges in Nigeria. As a response to the economic decline, Nigeria launched an Economic Sustainability Plan (ESP) as a one

Key View

• Improved non-oil revenue collection and a growing readiness to take on government debt will shield public infrastructure spending from the negative impact of stagnating oil prices and revenue.
• At the same time, we expect growth of Nigeria's private sector-led residential and non-residential building sector to accelerate in the long

Key View

• We are maintaining our more bearish growth forecasts for Nigeria's power capacity despite the deal being signed with Siemens to upgrade the overall power sector.
• While we expect that the first two phases of the project have a higher chance of success given its multi-faceted approach to addressing many issues in the sector, we expect