Key View

• Reform impetus is gaining traction in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), with Nigeria doing the heavy lifting. Nigeria’s President Bola Tinubu has removed the fuel subsidy and allowed for the removal of the country’s multiple exchange rate windows, marking a stark departure from the sluggish reform pace set by former President Muhammadu Buhari

Key View

• The withdrawal of GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) from Nigeria underscores the complex operational landscape and challenges within the country's business environment. 
• Weak macroeconomic conditions in Nigeria will continue to exert pressure on the operations of multinational pharmaceutical companies. 
• GSK's withdrawal from Nigeria’s

Key View

• The removal of the fuel subsidy in Nigeria will boost government revenues and capacity for greater infrastructure investment, posing tailwinds for infrastructure construction growth.
• Accordingly, we have revised upward our long-term construction, infrastructure, transport infrastructure, and energy & utilities infrastructure

Key View

• Whereas we had previously projected that Nigeria’s federal budget deficit would widen to 5.1% of GDP in 2023, the cancellation of the fuel subsidy suggests that the deficit will narrow to 3.6% of GDP.
• The subsidy removal will improve the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation's ability to remit funds to federal accounts

Key View

• We forecast that the Central Bank of Nigeria will continue tightening monetary policy through H223, reaching a terminal rate of 19.25% by end-2023.
• Rising inflation following recent policy shifts will encourage central bank policymakers to continue raising rates through the remainder of 2023, although large rate hikes are unlikely

Key View

• We project that real GDP growth in Nigeria will slow to 2.7% in 2023, down from 3.3% in 2022, as rapidly increasing living costs following key economic reforms weigh on domestic demand.
• That said, an improving trade balance - as crude production recovers and import demand falters - will offer tailwinds to the Nigerian economy over