Key View

• Following the Reserve Bank Of New Zealand’s July 13 meeting where it hiked its Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 50bps to 2.50%, we have revised our forecast for the OCR to reach 3.50% (compared to 3.00% previously) by the end of 2022.
• We expect robust wage growth and elevated inflationary pressure to prompt the central bank to further

Key View

• R&D-based drugmakers will be the main beneficiaries of expanding medicines budget in New Zealand.
• High levels of patient group advocacy will facilitate the introduction of innovative medicines.
• Despite increased budget allocation, public funding of modern medicines in New Zealand in most therapy areas will remain an area of concern

Key View

• We have revised our 2022 real GDP growth forecast for New Zealand to 2.7% from 3.4% previously.
• Our revision follows the release of the Q122 growth results which showed that the economy (on an expenditure basis) contracted by 0.1% q-o-q and only grew by 0.4% y-o-y as the omicron wave led to a disruption in economic activity.
• Further

Key View

• Retail sales in New Zealand are struggling to post good growth, as demand-side risks take their tolls, even after the end of lockdowns and restrictions. Rising consumer prices, higher mortgage rates and strict social restrictions have been eroding households' disposable incomes and dampening consumer confidence. This resulted in the

Key View

• After the Reserve Bank Of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) hiked its Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 50 bps to 1.50% at its April 13 meeting, we at Fitch Solutions retain our forecast for the RBNZ to further raise the OCR by a further 100 bps to 2.50% by end-2022.
• We have also retained our forecast for inflation to average 5.6% in 2022, higher than

Key View

• We at Fitch Solutions have revised down our 2022 real GDP growth forecast for New Zealand to come in at 3.4% in 2022, from 3.8% previously.
• The economy rebounded in Q421 following a contraction in the previous quarter, taking the full-year growth figure to 5.0% in 2021.
• In 2022, we expect fading base effects, tighter monetary policy

Key View

• Following the Reserve Bank Of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) February 23 meeting where it hiked its Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25bps to 0.75% while also agreeing, in principle, to reduce its bond holdings under the Large-Scale Asset Purchase (LSAP) programme, we at Fitch Solutions have revised up our OCR to 2.50% by end-2022, higher than our

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• We expect New Zealand’s beef exports to increase slightly through to 2026. Despite the Zero Carbon Act, initiatives by the government and industry bodies will help beef output to grow and allow the country’s beef surplus to expand as consumption falls.
• However, we highlight some challenges in top destination markets for New Zealand’s

Key View

• Meat and poultry spending will post healthy growth over 2022, but will slow slightly after two years of above-average spending growth rates.
• Poultry, in particular chicken, will be a growth outperformer over both the short- and medium term, while consumers will continue to decrease their consumption of red meats.
• However, red meat

Key View

• We forecast real household spending in New Zealand to grow by 4.6% y-o-y over 2022, to a total of NZD179.7bn (USD129.7bn).
• In October 2021 (latest data available), consumer confidence fell by 4.4 points to 102.7, the lowest reading since Q320, amid latest lockdown measures. Similarly, retail sales contracted by 5.2% y-o-y, as the