Key View

• Food spending patterns in New Zealand have been gradually changing over the long term (2010-2027). Spending is underpinned by staples, such as meat and poultry, dairy and fresh vegetables.
• High disposable incomes will allow consumers to diversify eating preferences, with sustainability driving demand for plant-based food options

Key View: New Zealand is doing great progress in increasing its electric vehicle (EV) adoption rates, on the back of its Clean Car Discount scheme, which provides rebates on the purchase of lower CO2-emitting vehicles but levies a fee on higher CO2-emitting vehicles. For 2023, we expect passenger EV sales to expand by 26.0% to 28,900 units

Key View

• At Fitch Solutions, we have revised downwards our 2023 real GDP growth forecast for New Zealand to 1.1%, from 1.5% previously.
• Our revision follows the release of the Q422 GDP data, which showed the economy contracting by 0.8% q-o-q on a seasonally adjusted basis (based on expenditure breakdown), equivalent to output expanding 2.5% y

Key View

• Following the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s February 22 meeting where it hiked the Official Cash Rate by 50bps to 4.75%, we at Fitch Solutions have revised our forecast for the policy rate to peak at 5.25% compared to 5.00% previously.
• Still-elevated inflation data in Q422 alongside tight labour market conditions will see the RBNZ

Latest Development: At a press conference on January 19, New Zealand’s Prime Minister (PM) Jacinda Ardern announced that she will be resigning ahead of the general elections which will be held on October 14. The Labour caucus is set to vote on a new leader on January 22, with the winner needing two-thirds support. Ardern expects the process to be

Key View

• At Fitch Solutions, we now forecast New Zealand’s real GDP growth to register at 2.7% in 2022 (from 1.9% previously) and 1.5% (revised from 1.7% previously) in 2023.
• Our growth revision for 2022 follows the release of Q322 GDP, which showed the economy expanded by 6.5% y-o-y, which is better than our initial expectation.
• Nevertheles

Key View

• We at Fitch Solutions believe the Labour-led government will see increasing dissatisfaction from homeowners due to easing property prices.
• In addition, we believe that the government is unable to gain much approval from aspiring home-buyers as both house prices and mortgage rates are elevated relative to pre-pandemic level.
• We

Key View

• At Fitch Solutions, we have revised downwards our 2022 real GDP growth forecast for New Zealand to 1.9%, from 2.7% previously.
• Our revision follows the release of Q222 GDP, which, on an expenditure basis, showed the economy expanding by 2.1% q-o-q, equivalent to output remaining unchanged (0.0%) in year-on-year terms.
• Overall, we

Key View

• We at Fitch Solutions forecast New Zealand’s current account deficit to widen to 7.5% of GDP in 2022 from 5.8% in 2021.
• New Zealand’s trade balance is likely to worsen given the economic slowdown in China, labour shortages impacting production and elevated import prices.
• The primary income deficit is expected to widen as a broadly

Key View

• We expect New Zealand's construction industry to see real growth of 3.0% y-o-y in 2022, marking a return to positive real growth territory following an estimated contraction of 2.9% y-o-y in 2021.
• The market’s inaugural long-term infrastructure strategy, released in May 2022, presents broad upside risk to our infrastructure forecasts